Dunning–Kruger Effect

This post was started a few years ago. Its time has come with the chaos evident in large portions of the world. 

 Historically, the church and state aligned with art and science. Inquisitive citizens studied and created concepts in attempts to better understand the natural world.  Suggesting that the Earth was not the centre of our universe may have gotten Galileo in trouble, but artists and scientists could survive financially and contribute significantly to society and culture. That patronage largely controlled the subject matter, but it was still creative and advanced knowledge. Arts and sciences, which are the quest for more understanding and knowledge, brand society more than politicians. For example, name any of the prime ministers during the life of Tom Thomson. Good luck with that!

Now, ponder where we are now. Populist politicians have prospered. Such dictatorially inclined politicians are threatened by knowledge. Art and science are under attack. Real knowledge is also being threatened by Artificial Intelligence (AI). What is real? AI can forge some convincing fakes. Without critical thought, deciphering fact from fiction is a challenge. Confusion abounds, and catchy slogans can win at the polls 

How can such divisive, maniacal oligarchs get elected? 

Information is readily accessible via the World Wide Web and fantastic tools like Wikipedia. However, an open mind and analytical diagnosis of that vast amount of data is required to accurately sift through the mountains of ideas. The decline of critical thought opens the door for authoritarian autocrats. 

Please let me explain using the weather as an illustration.

The weather is the poster child topic for a subject where everyone feels qualified to have an opinion. After all, everyone has experienced the weather! The weather is a major topic of conversation. But the participants possess vastly different levels of understanding. The weather is more complicated than looking out the window or getting rained on. 

The Dunning–Kruger Effect studies cognitive bias. Originally, it was described after doing self-assessments on people with skills in an area versus novices. The research surprisingly revealed that novices were more confident in their wrong answers than experts were in their right answers.

Our understanding of meteorology has matured during the last century, but there is still much to learn. Climate is the summation of average weather. The concept that humans could impact the climate was unbelievable to most, even though the science dates back to the early 1800s. 

The Dunning–Kruger Effect helps to explain what was observed when meteorologists started to talk about global warming in the 1970s. Resistance to suggestions that humans were altering the weather and thus the climate was blistering, especially from politicians and fossil fuel corporations. Changing the weather was well beyond anyone's experience and thus nonsense according to the novice.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an intergovernmental body of the United Nations started in 1988 to educate the novices. The IPCC had a mandate to "provide governments at all levels with scientific information that they can use to develop climate policies". The science of global warming and climate change is beyond refute, but populist politicians and significant percentages of the population refuse to accept the facts. The bridges built to encourage them to become more than novices were unused. 

The following simplified graphical version of the Dunning–Kruger Effect illustrates the problem. The public who live in the weather typically has a low understanding of the weather. Meteorologists and climatologists with decades of university and scientific experience possess high levels of competence. 

My experiences giving countless presentations and lectures on weather and global warming confirm the above Dunning–Kruger Effect. I hesitate to use the condescending word "stupid". My goal was to build bridges so that the participants could learn and become more knowledgeable, thus facilitating informed opinions. Open and inquiring minds were all that were required, and I was always available to assist. I never give up. Such information was intended to assist when elections rolled around.

Success was limited, and my letters to politicians failed miserably. Environmental budgets and scientific positions were slashed in Canada. Weather and climate observing sites were shut down. Mentioning names and political parties is pointless at this point of almost no climate return. Those battles against knowledge based on art and science continue as the planet blows past all of the climate tipping points into an unsurvivable environment. 

That is where we are now. The huge spike on the graph is populated by people with limited competence but abundant confidence. They have closed minds and will not listen to any information that does not reinforce their bias. They are easily programmed and susceptible to manipulation, favouring slogans over science. Closed minds do not allow them to follow the bridge to more factual information and the truth - enlightenment. No amount of talk, data or information can change a closed mind that is already made up. 

Social media helped build "Mount Stupid", encouraging controversy over consensus, certainty over nuance, simplicity over complexity, fake over fact, and propaganda over knowledge.

"Influencers" with millions of followers have become wealthy celebrities, paid to manipulate the uninformed but decidedly opinionated masses. Efforts to build bridges and spread knowledge remain generally unfunded. 

We are witnessing the downfall of art and science, which are the quests for knowledge. These are sad days when real wisdom can be hard to find.

The fabric of society has changed dramatically with populist type governments divorcing themselves from knowledge. Without central support and funding, the essentials of society and knowledge flounder economically. Even libraries are threatened with books being banned...

You might suspect that I am thinking of the current situation in the USA, but Canada has also waged wars against knowledge. "Make America Great Again" and "Axe the Tax" are well-worn political slogans on both sides of the undefended border. 

This is how maniacal oligarchs get elected by the easily influenced, programmed and manipulated masses. The impacts of the Dunning–Kruger Effect threatening the pursuit of knowledge (art and science) are becoming increasingly obvious.

• The existential impact of Global Warming as the Earth entered an interglacial period lasting thousands of years. The momentum of the climate systems will propel the Earth into conditions last seen in the Miocene Epoch, 16 million years ago.  
• Medical science is also impacted as the monitoring of infectious diseases and the development of vaccines falter. 
• The impacts of the Sixth Mass Extinction as we pave over paradise are far-reaching and will eventually include humans. 
• The list grows longer every day if you follow the news...

This leads to the motive behind this post. What can we do about it? 

I do not know! It is OK to admit when one does not have the answer. Ask someone who might. We all learn from doing so. Society is stronger as an assembly of inquisitive thinkers with open minds. Bridges need to be built and fortified. Maybe someone who might read this will have the answer. I am all ears. 

Until then, there is still much I need to learn. I will continue quietly painting, planting trees and looking after nature. Life surrounded by nature, embedded in the now, is all we have and all we need.

These thoughts are not perfect, but perfection can be overrated. I will post what was intended to be positive anyway and get back to my brushes. Perhaps this might help someone...

Warmest regards and keep your paddle in the water, 

Phil Chadwick

Make Earth Great Again

Draft...

The Warming Stripes visualize the current state of Earth - simple and scientifically accurate. The graphic above even predicts what will happen as determined by global action or inaction. Professor Ed Hawkins at the University of Reading called them "climate stripes" when he created them in 2018. The barcode message is clear, and the combustion of fossil fuels is the cause of global warming.

But there is more to this story, which I will get to after including a bit of the science describing how Earth got into this mess. It is a tale of greed for ever more wealth and power by just a few, exhibiting a complete lack of empathy for everything else on Earth.

Carbon that took millions of years to safely sequester is being released in a geological blink of an eye a couple of hundred years. In 2024, global average atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations reached a record high of 424.61 parts per million (ppm) - a 3.6 ppm increase compared to 2023. 

The last time atmospheric carbon dioxide reached that level was in the Miocene, 16 million years ago ... long before Hominins first appeared about 6 million years ago. 

How much carbon can the Earth absorb to offset the sins of greed? We need wonder no longer! The largest annual increase of 3.6 ppm of atmospheric carbon dioxide observed in 2024 suggests that the buffering power of the Earth has been maxed out. The red oval in the following graphic identifies the sudden jump in atmospheric carbon dioxide. The Earth just can't take any more, and the buffering capabilities will be reduced as the planet continues to warm. The current level is approximately 50% higher than pre-industrial levels in 1760. 

The greenhouse effect was first identified in 1824 - yes, 200 years ago! The Goldilocks' balance of "greenhouse gases" created a perfect environment for life on Earth - a paradise. The combustion of fossil fuels and the release of carbon dioxide back into the atmosphere have upset that balance. There are many other greenhouse gases to study, but the science and impacts remain the same.

The following graphic summarizes global warming since 1860 and includes the corresponding "warming stripes".

But this is only a third of the story. What has happened in the oceans below and the atmosphere above? The following graphic provides a more complete version of the impacts of global warming during our lifetime.

Stratosphere: The science is not trivial, but CO2 in the stratosphere is very efficient at absorbing and re-emitting heat. Much of this re-emitted heat is lost to space. There are very few stratospheric molecules available to intercept the heat as it exits to space. The net loss of stratospheric heat energy causes it to cool as CO2 levels continue to increase with time. 

Troposphere: The increased CO2 concentrations in the lower atmosphere intercept heat emitted from the Earth's surface. The Greenhouse Effect keeps that heat energy in the lower atmosphere. 

Ocean: The warming in the oceans follows that of the Earth, but with a time delay that increases with depth. This vertical mixing of heat energy takes time in high heat capacity water, so the above "warming strips" will be intuitively obvious to most. 

The "little blue planet, third from the sun" is changing, and the Holocene Epoch, which started only 11,700 years ago, is rapidly coming to an end.  The empathy-void decisions were made in the Exxon Head Offices in the 1970s. James Black, company scientist and climatologist for Exxon clearly stated that "uncontrolled fossil fuel use would cause a "super-interglacial" lasting thousands of years". It would take that long for nature to repair the Earth in the absence of people. (see "Big carbon's strategic response to global warming, 1950-2020") "Drill baby drill" remains the slogan.

Governments and international oil companies were well aware of the impacts of their actions in the 1970s. They preferred business as usual - ever more power and wealth at the expense of everything else on Earth. The evil lack of empathy for all things is not nearly adequate to describe these deeds. 

Earth will be the ONLY planet that we will ever know... and the species we share it with. The people need to "Make Earth Great Again". I thought it was a catchy slogan... 

Canada has been a climate laggard for decades now… here is a video and added information that everyone can understand, even some politicians. https://lnkd.in/eHzj3XHF

We need the MEGA logo on every green baseball cap around the world. There must be a will and a way to fix the wrongs of the Fossil Fools. Real leaders must embrace the whole planet and work together to avert the thousands of years of the forecast interglacial period. We are currently in the verification stages of that sadly accurate prediction.

How can the course of Earth be effectively changed? Some nations are making great strides forward. Leave the carbon where the millennium safely sequestered it, and where it must stay. Plant trees. Be a part of nature. We are all in this together!

There are millions of concerned citizens, scientists and leaders around the globe eager to make a difference on this existential global warming threat. It will take everyone working together to make a difference.

Warmest regards and keep your paddle in the water, 

Phil Chadwick