The Weather Machine A Journey inside the forecast By Andrew Blum

As scientists of the Atmospheric Environment Service (AES) and then Environment Canada (EC, ECCC), we all lived inside the Weather Machine. Most retirees portably even saw the “Golden Age” of meteorology first-hand. I define that as the era when meteorologists could look at new data sources, wonder what it was revealing and produce some scientifically sound answers. Satellites and Doppler came on stream just as I entered the AES. Curiosity and keenness were what it took to provide a quality service. It was fun and creative. The understanding and science of meteorology was growing exponentially. Most of us probably never even noticed when meteorology was quietly renamed “atmospheric sciences” – we were too busy learning and creating predictions. Then came the cuts of the 1990’s and beyond… Where we fit into this narrative has evolved during the Golden Age and the Weather Machine by Blum does a credible job pf describing those transitions.
The image shows the library copy that I read but this time I used sticky tabs to mark titbits that I found interesting. There is some very interesting history that soaked up a lot of tabs. Art critic John Ruskin (the very first coloured tab on page 14) wrote in 1839 about building “perfect systems of methodical and simultaneous observations” to create a vast global weather map which he called “a vast machine” aka the Weather Machine. Robert Fitzroy who captained Charles Darwin’s ship the Beagle would call later these “synoptic charts” in 1859.

The story of physicist and meteorologist Vilhelm Bjerknes (1862-1951) deserved more space. Bjerknes wrote to Arctic explore Fridtjor Nansen (featured in The Ice at the End of the World and the first to traverse Greenland) and stated “I want to solve the problem of predicting the future states of the atmosphere and ocean”. Vilhelm then constructed the seven equations of seven variables that had to be solved to make those predictions “like brushes that sketched the different ways in which air can move around.”

In the Bergen School after the Great War, assistants would gather and plot data maps of Norway. Bjerknes would ask every morning “What discoveries have we made today?” This reminded me of the operational phrase “concern du jour” which I liked to use. They were looking for patterns and they found many. Sverre Petterson arrived in Bergen in 1923 and was thrilled with this approach to meteorology. The big names in meteorology were on the job!

Another World War came and went and the essential importance of weather became even more obvious. In 1946 a camera inserted into the nose of a captured German V-2 rocket showed what the earth and weather really looked like. Weather was not the intersection of Venn Diagrams.  A 1951 United States secret report bore the title of “Weather Reconnaissance from a Satellite Vehicle”. The satellite age of global observations was about to dawn. Observational data was flowing like a fire hose.

Apparently United States President Kennedy was very keen on the weather which resulted in the 1966 opening of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado. Computers were also starting to advance exponentially. The creation of a simulated model of the earth-atmosphere system became feasible. Numerical weather prediction was not only practical but was growing at breath-taking speed.

Blum goes into detail about the ensuing atmospheric model race and “the Euro” forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWH). Ongoing advances in the numerical modelling of the earth-atmosphere system are certainly astonishing. These advancements when coupled with the Web and Internet have spawned the creation of weather applications. These apps know where you are and can deliver weather information suited to your needs 24/7. The provision of weather services continued to transform.

The final chapter entitled “The Weather Diplomats” details the work of the World Meteorological Organization. The tactful and congenial efforts of our own David Grimes are positively highlighted as the WMO steers towards maintaining global sharing and cooperation that is required to allow the Weather Machine to perform its vital work.

There is a thread of art and creativity woven through “The Weather Machine”. Meteorologists started as visionary dreamers of what could be. The data sources and computing tools that they created turned those imaginings into reality. The almost independent numerical prediction system now encourages meteorologists to be simply overseers of the forecast loop and to get involved only when things go bad…  Supercomputers, instant global communication and worldwide weather monitoring and weather apps have made human opinions on the evolution of the weather superfluous. The Golden Age of meteorology has created this machine and now maybe is the time for me to go and paint the weather instead…

“The Weather Machine” was a quick read. I was a bit disappointed and expected more content and maybe even some philosophy. This book could have been a magazine article.

I figure if one is going to have an opinion about climate change, it had better be an informed opinion. I always thought I was well informed but there is always something to learn too.

Phil the Forecaster
Eco-artist :>))