The Solution to Cloud Swirls Can Be Found in Your Hands

#2361 "Singleton Sunset Swirl"

In the atmospheric frame of reference, every cloud shape can be considered in terms of a swirl. If you align the fingers of your hand in the direction of the cloud curvature, your thumb must point either up or down. Why and what does it mean? 

A movie played in my mind when I was attempting to explain this stuff years ago, arms flailing and pencil and paper flying. My friends at COMET turned some of those into animations and graphics. I will try again with a different approach. 

Imagine yourself at the equator with you back to the rising sun. Life is good with the warmth on your back. You can’t feel it but you are in a non-inertial frame of reference. The Earth is spinning as it orbits the “stationary” sun. Fictitious forces that result from the rotation of the Earth include the Coriolis and centrifugal forces. These forces make weather even more interesting as they shape the lines in the sky. 

Imagine I am at the equator at sunrise looking west...

Now stretch your arms outward and curl your fingers out as well. Your right arm must point north while your left arm is directed toward the south. The fingers of both hands are curled cyclonically. Both thumbs of your cyclonically curved hands must point upward. 

The previous entries in the Weather Blogs all mentioned the “right hand rule” because the selected weather examples were in the northern hemisphere.  When I participated in the Solar Car Race in the Australian Outback in 1996, I employed the “left hand rule” instead. Both rules describe cyclonic rotation. 

The effects of the Coriolis force at the equator are not noticeable - in fact, they are zero. An observer stationary with respect to the sun, could watch you standing at the equator. They would see that your back does not turn at all as the Earth does it daily spin. 

If you could stretch your arms gradually until your hands reach the poles, the Coriolis force gets really interesting. The same solar stationary observer, would see your right hand complete one entire, cyclonic rotation each and every day. Gumby standing at the equator with his right hand stretched to the North Pole would not feel any difference but Gumby is within the non-inertial frame of reference. An observer looking down on the North Pole would see Gumby’s hand rotate cyclonically counter clockwise. At the same time, Gumby’s left hand would also complete one full cyclonic rotation every day. An observer above the South Pole looking downward would see Gumby’s left hand rotate clockwise. 

My Friend Gumby

The impact of the fictitious Coriolis force increases dramatically from the equator to the poles. This explains why the swirls and deformation zones are more obvious and dynamic over the higher latitudes. 

Everything that I explained in the earlier Weather Blogs can now be employed in the Southern Hemisphere remembering to employ the “left-hand cyclonic rule" south of the equator. Cyclonic rotation has the same meteorological implications in both hemispheres but you have to use the appropriate hand. 

Another visualization is to shoot arrows from the Poles. An archer at the North Pole aiming toward the south (the only available direction) would see the arrow deflected to the right as the Earth rotates counter-clockwise underneath. The fingers of the archer’s right hand will curl counter-clockwise as well when the thumb points up. Similarly an Antarctic archer at the South Pole shooting northward (an impossible to miss shot) would see the Coriolis force deflect that arrow to the left. From the South Pole perspective the Earth is rotating clockwise in the direction of the fingers of your left hand with the thumb pointing upward. 

There are many ways to look at the fictitious Coriolis created by the spinning Earth. The take away messages are:

• The Coriolis force increases from zero at the equator to a maximum at the poles.
• The deflection is always perpendicular to the motion and to the right in the Northern Hemisphere but to the left in the Southern Hemisphere.
• The rotation of the Earth defines the cyclonic sense of rotation. Cyclonic is counter-clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere.
• Differential advection of cyclonic rotation with height results in upward vertical motion as indicated by the direction of your thumb (Trust me on this one).

Rotation creates the swirls in the atmosphere. Simple conceptual models based on these swirls can explain everything you need to know about the atmosphere and the weather. The following graphic explains the weather painted in #2361 "Singleton Sunset Swirl". You can do it as well with just a few lessons and lots of sky gazing practice. 

Keep you paddle in the water and warmest regards,

Phil the Forecaster Chadwick

An Interview with Phil the Forecaster Chadwick

Liana Voia from Paris, France reached out for an interview with a plein air artist. The connection came like lightning out of the blue with some guidance from the International Plein Air Painters. This is what Liana put together from our candid conversation. It is intended to be an honest observation of art, science and the natural world that we need to protect. Art is a way of life and one must live that with integrity and lots of humour too. 

Keep you paddle in the water and warmest regards,

Phil the Forecaster Chadwick

The Oldest Science

#2423 "Remembrance of a Orange Sunset"

Meteorology and forecasting is the oldest science – starting around 200,000 years ago. Cave people needed to be able to observe and correctly predict the most dangerous weather in order to endure. This brainy skill set was essential for survival. 

#2375 "Fire and Rain Coming"

There are dozens of weather references in the Bible. Some are even weather forecasts like Luke 12:54 “And he also said to the multitudes, When you see a cloud rise in the west you immediately say, There comes a shower; and it is so.” These are really simple observation based forecasts. Real forecasting requires much more. 

The weather and the world is complex. Consider a thin layer of a compressible fluid on a rotating spheroid with a tilted axis in an elliptical orbit about a heat source of varying intensity. Heat and moisture energy in this thin atmosphere requires constant readjustment and stirring just to stay in balance. Weather is the result.

The Thin Atmosphere

Meteorology may not be rocket science – it is much more challenging. Modern forecasting required the invention of physics. The principle was that if we could analyse the current state of the weather, then the laws of physics could be invoked to move the atmosphere and its energy around and thus predict the future state of the atmosphere – the weather. The laws of nature may be inviolate but the world is a complex place and there is much to analyse and more to understand. It can be so intimidating that many now just look at the numerical weather (NWP), computer simulated atmosphere for their forecast. There is a better and more fun way. 

Sample Simplified NWP

I plan to gradually post a series that will take us back to the olden days when people slowed down and looked up at the clouds with both wonder and understanding. The NWP will still have a place for what is happening over the horizon. This will be a creative and artistic look at the science of weather. I will keep them brief. The first Blog in that series is already done. 

Keep you paddle in the water and warmest regards,

Phil the Forecaster

Next time… understanding swirls with your fingers…

Weather Watching Guide - Contrails

4:50 pm Monday February 1st, 2021

Man made contrails can be useful for understanding the weather. I have written about the pollution aspects of jets in "Blue Sky Blues". This article will take us back to my very keen early days as a meteorologist when everything I saw made me ask "why". I envisioned thought experiments in my mind in an attempt to figure out the problems that I had assigned myself. Much of this effort played out on quiet night shifts. This one was about a contrail I witnessed back in Shearwater when the  skies were blue and advection fog was not messing with my forecasts. The contrail was sharply defined on one edge and not the other... "why"? I figured the answer out in 1979. It came back to me as I was watching a recent sunset. 

Every cloud has a story to tell… even the aircraft contrail. Here are the postulates I use for reading the stories written in the clouds.Also see "Weather Watching Guide for Everyone…" 

•       Every shape is generated within the atmospheric frame of reference.

•       The differential motions of the relative winds do the shaping.

•       Gravity waves are everywhere perpendicular to the relative winds in a stable layer. The spacing of these gravity waves is related to wind speed just like waves on the ocean. Larger waves are separated by larger spacing and are created by stronger winds.

•       Cloud streets and Langmuir streaks are everywhere parallel to the relative winds in an unstable layer.

•       Differential tangential changes in wind speed cause rotation –swirls.

•       Differential perpendicular changes in wind speed cause convergence -  DeformationZones.

This one contrail in the Singleton sky resulted from a jet probably leaving Toronto’s Pearson International Airport and headed to Europe. The postulates can be applied to the moisture patterns to decipher the weather story whether they be natural or man-made in nature.

The approach that I prefer is to start with the obvious clues and assemble as many puzzle pieces as possible. One can infer any missing clues since the pieces will only fit together in a few ways while still obeying the laws of nature.  The best solution will have the most puzzle pieces fitting meteorologically together into a plausible and consistent weather story.

These clouds are all ice crystal cirrus clouds. The layers of cirrus cloud are certainly at different heights above the ground but that does not impact on the weather story.

The sunset timing reveals that the view is westerly. The exact timing of 4:50 pm on Monday February 1st, 2021 would yield the exact angle but that too is not important. (244.5 degrees courtesy of https://www.sunearthtools.com/)

The train track optical illusion makes the streaks of cirrus appear to converge in the distance for the same reason as crepuscular rays. The Langmuir streaks of cirrus are actually parallel. This can be verified from the satellite view of the patterns.

Point A is located along one of the Langmuir Streaks. The ice crystals of the Langmuir streaks occupy a significant layer of unstable atmosphere in order for their formation. The bottom of this layer is the stable layer that is responsible for the gravity waves incorporated within the Langmuir streaks. I inferred the east wind (blowing toward the sun) because ascent is required in the atmosphere for cloud formation. I was playing the warm conveyor belt conceptual model in my mind.

Point B is located at gravity waves in the contrail. The jet had a significant head wind on his way to Europe. These gravity waves of the contrail are at a lower level than the Langmuir streaks but are in the same wind field. The contrail is persistent implying that the air mass is moist which is also consistent with the warm conveyor belt conceptual model

Point C is located at smaller gravity waves within the larger gravity waves of the contrail. These are what caught my eye and why I did the painting. I can explain...

The contrail has a sharp northern edge (to the right in the image) and a diffuse southern edge. Why?

The dispersion of the ice crystals can be explained mathematically … but not today. The pattern is very common and has a simple explanation not requiring differential equations. The Gaussian profiles can be simply approximated by two outward point vectors. Consider Hansel and Gretel leaving a broad trail of equally scattered bread crumbs. Atmospheric dispersion caused by turbulence will spread these crumbs outward in an even broader path. The particles are originally clustered along the path of the jet. The green concentration curve in the following graphs is concentrated with a narrow and high peak. With time the particles disperse outward and the concentration curve shift to the red, the green and eventually the broad and flat orange curve. 

In Graphic 1, the atmospheric dispersion of the contrail can be simplified by the blue arrows in order to avoid the complex mathematics. Ice crystals in column b can stay where they are while those in columns a and c move to the shoulders of the normal distribution with time.

In Graphic 2, the atmosphere relative winds are depicted by the large block arrow which moves the entire contrail. This relative wind will also move the ice crystals in the three columns. None of the ice  crystals have been moved yet by those vectors.

In the final graphic 3, the vector addition of the atmosphere relative winds to the dispersion vectors enhance the downwind convergence while increasing the upwind divergence. The crystals in column c are moved to the right by both the dispersion and the relative wind vectors. The crystals in column b are only moved by the relative wind vector. The crystals in column a do not move much as the dispersion vector is in the opposite direction of the relative wind vector. 

Note: The number of ice crystals and the area under each of the coloured distributions is intended to be the same.

The next time you view a contrail in the sky, now you will know how to hear what it is saying. If the drift is from the south which is likely the case for a persistent contrail in a moist air mass, you can expect warmer weather and perhaps even a low pressure system. The drift from the south will produce a sharper, more defined northern edge. 

If the contrail is drifting toward the south with the sharper edge on the south side of the contrail, you can expect cooler and drier weather. The southward drifting contrail is less likely to be persistent.

Keep you paddle in the water and warmest regards,

Phil the Forecaster

Singleton Philly Celebrates Ground Hog Day 2021

Singleton Philly is alive and well, thank you… and looking forward to the Global Holiday on February 2nd. Unlike his Rideau Hall Relatives, there has been no screaming and yelling in the Singleton Burrow although there was a healthy amount of laughter in 2020. The Singleton Sanctuary is governed by the policy that merit is the only thing that matters. Working for and with nature is a way of life. 

The rural internet is slow and there has been no zooming with the outside world. That may be a good thing. In spite of COVID and technological isolation, news has leaked in the burrow that developers intent on making even more money, can pay the government some cash to ravage his provincially significant sanctuary. Sounds like a good idea to the politicians but not to Philly who intends to leave the sanctuary even more natural and healthy than the way he found it. It is the natural thing to do!

The COVID restrictions that were ignored by the political and corporate elite, were strictly enforced in the Singleton Burrow. It was pretty much life as normal for the hermit artist… and Philly expects that to continue for another year. Philly will get the vaccine but will not rush to the front of the line. Health care, teachers and law enforcement need to be first among everyone serving for the common good.  

Now for the Furcast… Unlike those other better known varmits, Singleton Philly relies on more than his shadow to predict the outcome of February 2nd - science!   A strong Nor’Easter will be pounding its way up the New England coast on Ground Hog morning. Watch out Nova Scotia!  No school for you. The deformation zone pattern suggests overcast skies and cool northerly winds for Singleton in the morning. 

But I already know that I won’t see my shadow … and won’t be scared back into my Singleton Burrow, which means that winter will be over. More importantly I will be obeying the COVID restrictions in the first place and still be in my hole in the ground anyway. 

Scientifically the polar vortex has split due to changes in the stratosphere. As well, La Niña—the cool phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation climate pattern—is firmly in place and likely to last at least into the summer. This pattern favours the Nor'Easter that I was mentioning and mild, stormy weather into spring. Maybe even some March low-topped supercell thunderstorms.

For those of you interested in deterministic forecasts, winter is over. It appears that some groundhog got into the computer models with a red crayon. It will be mild though.  But remember that this is a deterministic prediction and thus bound to be flawed - ensembles and probability are betters way to communicate the weather. 

Warmest regards and keep your paddle in the water... looking forward to a greener future...  the winds are changing... 

Singleton Philly

And please stay safe... 

By the way, Singleton Philly is not an albino. He turned gray in his thirties from worrying about getting the forecast right...

Art, Science and Creativity

Isaac Newton and Leonardo da Vinci

Recently I read that artists were rated as the most unimportant people during the COVID-19 Pandemic. I beg to differ. The arts, science and the creativity that make both special and enterwine them together are the most vital... and this is true all of the time. 

A quiet period due to a pandemic worked for Newton. 

On July 25, 1665, a five-year-old boy named John Morley, of the parish of the Holy Trinity in Cambridge, England, was found dead in his home. The young boy was the first known case and death from the bubonic plague in Cambridge that year. London's spring outbreak of the bubonic plague had spread to Cambridge. The Cambridge residents raced to isolate themselves in the countryside. Isaac Newton, a young scholar of Trinity College also evacuated to his home in Lincolnshire. The family farm called Woolsthorpe was sixty miles north of the university and fairly remote from the neighbouring villages. Newton was in a creative solitude for the next two years. He worked on his projects that he wanted to solve. These included the invention of calculus, the mathematics of change, analytical geometry, the science of motion, the force of gravity, and more. 

Leonardo as a young man on the left

Leonardo da Vinci also survived a series of bubonic plagues that struck Milan between 1484 and 1485. That plague outbreak killed about 50,000 people which was a third of Milan's population. Leonardo was always working on his many projects - so much so that most of those projects were never completed. Leonardo must have used some of that quiet plague time to design concepts for a future city. Those plans were completed between 1487 and 1490 and can be found in the Paris Manuscript B.

Medieval cities like Milan were characterized by narrow, dirty and crowded streets. Travel and navigation within any city was difficult. Sewage was part of the street. Diseases like the plague spread easily. Leonardo envisioned a renaissance city with an open and modern design that emphasized aesthetics, cleanliness, and efficiency. Leonardo used a network of canals to move goods to and from market. Sanitation was a key part of his planned city. One of Leonardo's sketches even suggest multiple subways beneath the city to move goods and people. Leonardo was way ahead of his time back in 1484. Most modern cities would benefit even today from his insights. I would highly recommend the biography by Walter Isaacson entitled simply "Leonardo Da Vinci". That book tells the entire story of the renaissance genius.

Others were certainly in the same state of isolation due to the various plagues but did not manage to be quite as creative as da Vinci or Newton. That fact does not stop one from trying though. Maybe we can look at COVID as an opportunity to do something great - or at least try. What we must not do is to denigrate the worth of the artists and the scientists... just sayin'. 

Warmest regards and keep your paddle in the water, 

Phil the Forecaster Chadwick

Vincent's Paddle

 Vincent Willem van Gogh (30 March 1853 – 29 July 1890) died at the age of only 37 years.

Thomas Jefferson took the phrase "pursuit of happiness" from John Locke (1632-1704) who was one of the most influential of Enlightenment thinkers and was commonly known as the "Father of Liberalism". Jefferson turned the phrase into his famous statement of a peoples' inalienable right to "life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness" in the American Declaration of Independence. Jefferson did not provide the answer on how or where to find happiness in that pursuit of life.

I believe that Vincent had the solution. A happy life is one where you make yourself “useful” to society and your fellow man.  You can find that theme throughout his 37 years if you only look. Entitlement was not the answer and should not make you truly happy. 

The life struggles of Vincent have been well documented. A Google search of “Vincent van Gogh” yields more than 62 million hits. Some of these links will be misleading and many will just focus on the missing ear and his “insanity”.  People around the globe and especially art historians have very strong opinions concerning Vincent. My approach was to ensure that any opinions I might have, must be well-informed. With this in mind I would like to suggest two excellent resources of the many that I have consulted.

Vincent didn’t realize it at the time but those more than 900 letters that he wrote, mainly to his Brother Theo, would evolve into his life story. “Vincent By Himself” as edited by Bruce Bernard is an excellent summary of those letters. Vincent was a very empathetic, passionate and articulate man and not the frenzied, madman artist on the far edge of sanity as often portrayed. The parody of the genius artist as a starving, crazy lunatic just isn't valid. His letters proved that simple fact but they needed the help of his sister-in-law.  

Johanna Gezina van Gogh-Bonger was the Dutch editor and translator of the letters of the van Gogh brothers. She was the wife of Theo van Gogh, art dealer, and the sister-in-law of Vincent. She became the key player in the growth of Vincent's fame. Without Johanna, Vincent would have likely been unknown more like Johannes Vermeer – but that’s another story.

I also enjoyed “Van Gogh's Ear: The True Story” by Bernadette Murphy. The research that went into “The True Story” is phenomenal. Murphy reveals, for the first time, the true story of this long-misunderstood incident of Vincent’s ear. 

The truth sweeps away decades of myth and reveals the troubled but brilliant artist at his breaking point. Murphy’s detective work spanned the continents. She databased the inhabitants of Arles where Vincent created his finest work and wove their lives together and tied in where Vincent interconnected with each. Murphy uncovered previously unknown information about “Rachel” and uses it to propose a bold new hypothesis about what was occurring in Van Gogh’s heart and mind as he made a mysterious delivery to her doorstep. I will not give away the truth here. It is worth reading Bernadette Murphy's book. 

If books are not your style, then the 1956 movie “Lust for Life” is an accpetable American biographical film about the life of Vincent van Gogh. The movie was based on the 1934 novel of the same name by Irving Stone. The life of brilliant but tortured artist Vincent van Gogh was Hollywoodized. Much of the dialogue was imagined and the Vincent story was definitely fictionalized. This book and the movie is the basis of what many think they know about Vincent. The movie did not have the benefit of many of the facts later uncovered by Bernadette Murphy.

If books and movies do not connect with you, there is another option. Don McLean wrote “Vincent,” which is also known as “Starry, Starry Night,” in the fall of 1970 in his apartment full of antiques. At the time McLean was living in the Sedgwick House, a beautiful Federal style house in Stockbridge, Massachusetts. The inspiration came to him one morning while he was sitting on the veranda looking at a book about Vincent Van Gogh. As he studied a print of Van Gogh’s painting “Starry Night,” he realized that a song could be written about the artist through the painting. “The more I thought about it, the more interesting and challenging the idea became… I put down the book and picked up my guitar… Looking at the picture, I realized that the essence of the artist’s life is his art. And so, I let the painting write the song for me. Everyone is familiar with that painting.”

Van Gogh actually painted “Starry Night” while he was in an asylum at Saint Remy in 1889. He had to paint the scene from memory, not outdoors as he preferred. Van Gogh mentioned “Starry Night” only twice in his letters to his brother, Theo. Vincent lived well in the hospital and enjoyed more freedoms than any of the other patients. He was allowed to paint, read, and withdraw into his own room and even leave the ground if attended. Vincent certainly wasn’t crazy…

If all of these approaches fail you, then sitting quietly and looking through books of Vincent’s art like Don McLean did, is still a very good option. Travelling to the various museums to see the art in person would be the ultimate joy but far beyond the means of most. If you really do study the art, then Don Maclean’s words might ring true.

Irises (Saint Remy Van Gogh 1889)

The Starry Night (Van Gogh 1889)

“Now I think I know what you tried to say to me

How you suffered for your sanity How you tried to set them free

They would not listen they’re not listening still

Perhaps they never will.”

Vincent was in the pursuit of happiness and trying to be useful in life. I felt that Vincent had an understanding of happiness even though it largely eluded him. This is why I asked Janine to paint a Vincent Paddle. Here are the results. 

Janine selected some of my favourite Vincent quotes. Vincent preferred to be called simply by his Christian name which is how he signed his canvases. Very few people could correctly pronounce his family name anyway.

                                                         If you truly love nature, you will find beauty everywhere.
                                                                         I dream of painting and then I paint my dream.
                                      There is no blue without yellow and without orange.

Here is Janine’s story behind the Vincent Paddle. 

One wonders what art Tom and Vincent might have created if they had more time to explore their creativity.

I think this story was worth sharing... art matters...and we are all in this together. 

The story of Janine Marson and her art was featured in the March 2020 copy of Muskoa Life. You may also visit Janine's site at www.janinemarson.com.

Warmest regards and keep your paddle in the water (but not this one)... thank you Janine. 

Phil the Forecaster Chadwick

The Art and Science of Paddles - Tom Thomson

Painting with Janine in Huntsville 2016

In COVID spring 2020, I asked my friend and artist Janine Marson to paint a couple of paddles.  I have known and painted with Janine for many years. 

At the early age of only eight, Janine experienced a life changing encounter with iconic Group of Seven artist A.J. Casson who was painting up at Oxtongue Lake. Janine's chilhood stomping ground was the family resort "Timber Trail Inn" in Oxtongue. Tom Thomson sketched his swamp picture standing at the future site of Cabin 12. That patch of Canadian wilderness would grow into the studio masterpiece and quintessential piece of Canadiana named "Northern River". It was preordained that Janine would make art her life. Some of that life story and Janine were featured in the March 2020 copy of Muoskoa Life. You may also visit Janine's site at www.janinemarson.com.

Art is an individualistic and creative process. One does not describe the final product if something brilliant is the goal. Janine had free rein although I did specify that one paddle was to be a tribute to Tom Thomson and the other was intended for Vincent Van Gogh. I wanted them painted in a vertical format to match my other home-made paddles.

The results were spectacular and I think they deserve to be shared - the purpose of this entry. Here are the stories of two paddles and artists whose work I find very inspirational.

Tea Lake Dam in Algonquin Park, c. 1915

Thomas John Thomson August 5, 1877 – July 8, 1917 died at the age of only 39 years.

As an artist Tom painted seriously for just a few years. He was brilliantly talented and truly unique but his career was mysteriously ended just before his fortieth birthday. A google search of "Tom Thomson" produces 46 million hits so I will leave the details of Tom's life to the Web. 

Janine selected some of my favourite Tom Thomson quotes. Janine and I relate to these words. 

• Take everything as it comes; the wave passes, deal with the next one.

• I’ll stick to painting as long as I can.

• Some day they will know what I mean. 

Tom Thomson Was a Weatherman Presentation

The Thomson painting selected to grace the paddle was one of Tom’s many skyscapes. Tom was a weather fan and I have done several hundred presentations presenting that case. “Sunset  came from the spring of 1915 and has an interesting story that few might know. 

Sunsets are greatly reddened due to the sun position being very low or just below the horizon. The light passing at grazing incidence upon the earth must pass through a much longer path of atmosphere than when it is overhead. Since short wavelength light is more efficiently scattered by Rayleigh scattering, most of the blues are scattered out of the beam of sunlight before it reaches our eyes. 

Aerosols and particulate matter also contribute to the scattering of blue and even longer green wavelengths out of the beam. This helps to explain the brilliant red sunsets seen when there are many airborne particles such as after volcanic eruptions. The cataclysmic 1883 eruption of Krakatoa contributed to the blood red skies of many sunset paintings in the following years. “The Scream of Nature” and a series of similar paintings collectively referred to as “The Scream” by Edvard Munch may have been influenced by the Krakatoa eruption. Of course, there are those who disagree saying that Munch was not influenced by what he had seen – in strong contrast to Tom Thomson. Alternatively, the skeptics suggest that the close proximity of both a slaughterhouse and an insane asylum to the painting location may have offered some inspiration to Munch.

West Coast Smoke June 25th, 2020

The summer of 2020 bears many similarities to the explosion of Mount Larsen. The smoke from the fires that cover much of western North America can be traced eastward across the continent. Climate change and the destruction of nature would have devasted Tom... as it does Janine and me. 

Tom's artist friends who would later form the Group of Seven, accused him of colour exaggeration. Actually Tom carefully mixed the colours that he saw. Paint on Tom...

The paddle shaft inscriptions.

Thomson - Marson Paddle Collage

Here is Janine’s story behind the Thomson paddle. 

I think this story was worth sharing... art matters...we are all in this together. 

Warmest regards and keep your paddle in the water (but not this one)

Phil the Forecaster Chadwick

PS: I will save the story of Vincent's paddle for another day. 

Weather Watching Guide for Everyone…

#2057 "Deformation Cirrus" Pixels Link

Know your cloud… know your country. 

It may sound like a reality entertainment series but you too can be a “Cloud Tracker”.  This guide is intended to be a short introduction to understanding the clouds and their dynamics. The guide is designed to assist you in understanding the current weather situation. There are multiple excellent and thorough resources for the multitude of cloud types and their specific characterisitics. That information is terrific but not required for this short “Weather Watching Guide”.

The basic premise is that the cloud lines and shapes will allow the curious observer using their right hand, to determine their relative location within a mid-latitude storm and thus the weather. The Conveyor Belt Conceptual Model which was described in all of its detail in the previous 26 Blogs, describes everything you need to know. It is important to try to deduce the wind in the atmospheric frame of reference even though our observation is tied to the earth.

How high is the Cloud? The Outstretched Hand Guide. Convective cloud elements are all about the same size. They appear different just because of their height - how far away they are. If your outstretched hand can fully cover a cumulus cloud, then that cloud is certainly in the low etage and below 6500 hundred feet above the ground. If the thumb of your outstretched hand covers the convective element, then it is high enough to be altocumulus - between 6500 and 20,000 feet above the earth surface which is in the mid etage. If the tip of your outstretched pinky finger covers the convective element then you are looking at cirrocumulus in the high etage above 20,000 feet.

Clouds in the low etage interact with the earth's surface. Any cloud above that is in the free atmosphere. The winds moving and shaping clouds in the free atmosphere are the winds you will want to understand for the Conveyor Belt Conceptual Model. 

Oceanic Langmuir Streaks

Are the clouds Parallel to the Wind? Langmuir streaks of cloud can be as long as the wind. Langmuir streaks occur in a mildly unstable depth of the atmosphere bounded by a stable layer or boundary. Langmuir conducted his research for the ocean but the atmosphere is just an ocean of air with us at the bottom. The spacing between Langmuir streaks are more apt to be irregular. 

A Generalized Langmuir Streak Conceptual Model

Unstable layers of the atmosphere are those where the potential temperature of the atmosphere decreases with height. Parcels of air in an unstable atmosphere keep rising after being disturbed from their original level. Convective clouds like all types of cumulus reveal that the atmosphere is unstable. Langmuir streaks in the lower atmosphere are typically called turbulent stratocumulus cloud streets.

Turbulent Stratocumulus Streets in the Boundary Layer

The planetary boundary layer which is that layer of the atmosphere that exchanges heat, moisture and momentum with the ground is typically unstable during the day. Heating of the ground by the sun creates the instability and encourage and give rise to turbulent stratocumulus cloud streets.

Langmuir streaks in the upper atmosphere tend to be identified as jet stream cirrus and form below the stable layer at the top of the troposhere - where most of the weather we experience occurs. These high level Langmuir streaks parallel the central channels of the warm and dry conveyor belts. 

Gravity Waves Perpendicular to the Wind
Like Waves on a Lake

Are the clouds Perpendicular to the Wind? Gravity wave clouds are only as long as the width of the wind flow. Gravity waves occur within a stable layer of the atmosphere. The spacing between gravity wave bands are very regular. The wavelength or spacing between the gravity waves increase with the wind speed.

Stable layers of the atmosphere are those where the potential temperature of the atmosphere increases with height. Parcels of air are returned to their original level after being disturbed by a fluctuation in the wind or a barrier.

For example the planetary boundary layer is typically stable during the night. Cooling of the ground through the outward radiation of surface heat energy creates this nocturnal stability - cool temperatures at the surface and unchanged warmer temperatures aloft at the top of the planetary boundary layer. Gravity waves are commonly observed at the top of the planetary boundary layer after a night of cooling.

Frontal boundaries between air masses is the other location where one will typically find deviations in stability from that typically found in the atmosphere. Warm fronts direct warm air aloft which creates a stable situation. Cold fronts advance cooler air near the surface and these boundaries can be unstable.

Both Langmuir streaks and gravity waves reveal the wind within the atmospheric frame of reference which are the winds studied in the Conveyor Belt Conceptual Model. The Langmuir streaks align parallel to both the warm and dry conveyor belts. The Langmuir streaks are typically more obvious within the moisture of the warm conveyor belt. The gravity waves are everywhere perpendicular to the atmospheric frame wind. The regular waves caused by gravity in a stable layer can be most useful in finding the swirls as illustrated in #2378 "Singleton Classic Cirrus Summer Sunset".

Here is the clincher though - the Deformation Zone is your new best friend! I described how deformation zones are formed in Cloud Shapes and Lines in the Atmosphere. A Closer Look at Lines in the Sky describes the deformation zone process in even more detail. 

Any sharp boundary between relatively moist and dry air must be a deformation zone. This is my favourite conceptual model as it reveals everything you could hope to discover about the atmosphere. These deformation zone lines are also very common and are a big part of the Conveyor Belt Conceptual Model. Deformation zones come in all sizes and shapes and occur throughout the depth of the atmosphere. In fact a three dimensional deformation zone skin encases the air masses and their circulations. The quasi-horizontal intersections  between layers of cloud and the three dimensional deformation zone skin only reveal the linear cross-sections. The entire three-dimensional deformation zone skin requires your imagination.

The Deformation Zone Conceptual Model

Deformation zones (the double headed green arrow) are perpendicular to the strongest winds in the atmosphere. Watch the cloud move along the sharp boundary to reveal the generally weaker swirls that comprise the deformation zone conceptual model. Using your right hand, curl your fingers in the direction of this cloud motion. Your right thumb will point in the direction of the secondary motions in the atmosphere resulting from the deformation zone process. An upward pointing thumb means that the air is rising in the cyclonic companion of the flow - you can expect more cloud and instability. A downward pointing thumb means that the air is descending in the anticyclonic companion of the flow - you can expect less cloud and more stability - and more gravity waves too. 

If one could see the dry air parcels on the opposite side of the confluent asymptote of the deformation zone, you would flip your right hand keeping your fingers pointing in the same direction - but the thumb must turn to point in the opposite direction for that paired swirl. In this way an "X" must be paired with an "N" across the confluent asymptote of the deformation zone - and vice versa too.

The Warm Conveyor Belt and Gravity Wave Orientations

An astute weather observer can now locate the portion of the Conveyor Belt Conceptual Model that is currently crossing their location. An understanding of the Conveyor Belt Conceptual Model and the mid-latitude storm will allow the weather observer to further anticipate what is likely to happen in the future. 

Every Conveyor Belt is comprised of both a 

Cyclonic Companion and an Anticyclonic Companion

The Companions are very different in term sof weather.

A weather forecaster is born…

Warmest regards and keep your paddle in the water,

Phil the Forecaster Chadwick

PS: I developed this material in the mid 1980's. The work took a few years - mainly done on quiet night shifts.