Monday, July 15, 2024

The Artists of Georgian Bay

I was happy to be invited to participate in "The Artists of Georgian Bay".  As a solitary, almost hermit artist, I prefer to trace my own artistic journey. My goal is simply to learn and get better - both in art and life. It takes considerable time and effort to produce 2900 paintings - a number I expect to reach later this year. The intent is for the art to speak for itself freeing up time for me to simply create. I believe it is impossible to go anywhere new by following someone else. I want my artistic statements to be unique even though I certainly admire the art of many contemporary and past artists.  

As a result, I was quite surprised to be approached by Andrea Hillo, Publisher and Graphic Artist. I was even more surprised to discover that my friend Roy had already endorsed Andrea and her art projects

“Your books on area artists are important

contributions to Canadian culture.

I salute you.”
Roy MacGregor - the globe and mail, Author

Andrea can be contacted at PO Box 88 Harcourt, ON, K0L 1X0 or by email at: hillodesign@gmail.com

Here is a preview of the book and my contribution to the effort. I will have 25 copies available and will gladly sign or possibly remarque these. 

Art is a way of life. I surround myself with nature, enjoying the quiet beauty which can be found just outside my Studio door. Although I still love to get out and paint around Georgian Bay!

Here are some prized comments contributed during my artistic journey so far ... 

You are our plein air inspiration, descendant in spirit from Tom Thomson himself! Aleta Karstad
 Wonderful, fresh and dynamic Robert and Birgit Bateman

"Phil Chadwick's Canoe Lake series is wonderful. He not only captures the water and fall colours perfectly, but the 'personality' of the shoreline and cottages that make this lake so very special." Roy MacGregor

I never tire of looking at Phil’s paintings. He is a prolific Plein air painter who has masterfully perfected the art of bringing the distinctive wild, beautiful Canadian landscape to life. His work makes me homesick. And he is the best Plein air Companion! Leslie Allen - Allen Fine Art Studio

The Artists of Georgian Bay

Warmest regards and keep your paddle in the water,

Phil Chadwick

Thursday, July 4, 2024

Healing through art - Brightshores Health System Art

 

Brightshore Health System in Owen Sound invited emerging and professional artists to submit art pieces that were imaginative and original interpretations of "Recovery through Meaning, Belonging, Purpose and Hope". The message is essentially the meaning of life for me. My long-time friend Herbert Pryke suggested that I submit some pieces. We had worked together to raise funds in support of the protection of the Greenbelt and Oak Ridges Moraine. See "Connecting with Nature" which raised tens of thousands of dollars to preserve nature. 

Brightshore Health System affirmed that each of the selected pieces exemplifies how art can connect people, promote kindness, focus on building relationships, and celebrate diversity. I might add that art can also connect us to nature, the source of unlimited benefits. There are nineteen paintings on display so far...

I was very pleased to have the following six paintings selected.. so this is Good News Friday. A wonderful way to end the week. Thank you to the Brightshores Health System and many successes ahead. 

#0523 "Paradise", #0527 "Morning Beach", #0721 "The Guardian"; #1183 "Ragged Waters", #1538 "A Longer Reach", #1643 "August Sunset"

"As we prepare to welcome clients into our new Wellness & Recovery Centre, we are thrilled to highlight features from our local community within the facility.

The art project that you submitted to will convey the theme “Recovery through Meaning, Belonging, Purpose and Hope”; these pieces carry support from our community throughout the building and enhances our client’s experience.

Each of the selected pieces exemplify how art can connect people, promote kindness, focus on building relationships, and celebrate diversity.

The attached prints of your art will be showcased at our upcoming community events.

Thank you for being a part of this project and we look forward to displaying your art throughout the Wellness & Recovery Centre."

Having started in oils in 1967 with Mario Airomi, there is a lot of art in my oeuvre. I am currently working on painting number 2864. Most of my art can be seen in Fine Art America which I joined a decade ago. The six paintings above can be viewed there along with 2366 others. I do not have quality images of some of my early work although the story behind every piece is recorded. 

The web of the Internet allows anyone and everyone to see art while I am allowed the freedom to simply paint and look after nature. So far 1.67 million people have visited my site while I am free to simply paint, paddle and stay home... Life is very good. 

Keep your paddle in the water,

Phil Chadwick




Saturday, June 22, 2024

Singleton Turtles 2024 - Update

This is the story of protecting Singleton turtles starting in 2007... 
Turtle Protection circa 2009. The turtle protection started in 2007 and used just one of the wood-vinyl screens for each nest identified. They worked well for for a couple of years and then the predators upped the ante. 

Turtle Rock in the eastern bay of Singleton Lake was getting busier each year with modest successes. 

Everyone Keeps an eye out for the nesting turtles... 

Nest Protection Strategy had to be increased by 2016. The increase in turtles and their nests probably attracted more predators who fancied fresh eggs. 
Motion Sensor Lights and Music, Steel Grates and Cement blocks...
The raccoons possibly enjoyed the soft lights and music to dine by... 

Northern Map Turtle Nest Protection Circa 2021 included doubling up and layering of screens.

This nest was protected along with about ten others in 2021. The area protected had to be increased as the raccoons started to dig more from the sides to get at the nests.

Now for the 2024 Turtle Update... It was a challenging nesting season for Singleton Turtles. Starting in late May through to mid-June, dozens of turtles of various varieties would be wandering around the property searching for just the perfect place to leave their precious cargo. 

There are ample locations to lay their eggs. Since 2007, I have tried sand and various gravel sizes to provide just the right habitat. The turtles are very good at hiding their nests. If I do not witness them laying the eggs, the nests are nearly impossible to find - unless you have a nose as good as a raccoon. My morning stroll around the Sanctuary graphically displays what I have missed. The carnage was brutal in 2024.

I started to use everything in my arsenal to protect a larger area around each identified nest. 

I had to almost throw in the kitchen sink to protect the turtles in 2024... 

The raccoons work at night after my bedtime. They have learned from experience not to show their masked bandito face during the day. 

Understandably, there may be lots of turtles at Singleton probably due to the successes of the past decade, but I wanted to do more... and the steel grates were heavy and getting heavier. 

Turtle Protection 2024 was not good as I only managed to protect seven nests. The predators were beating me badly. I had to try something else with new and improved nest protectors. 


Cross your fingers for 2025 as we approach two decades of turtle protection. 

Keep your paddle in the water,
Phil Chadwick

Thursday, February 1, 2024

A Ground Hog's Lament

February 2nd may be Ground Hog Day but this one is very different! What winter? 

We can’t have six more weeks of something that has yet to arrive. 

The Rideau Canal Skateway is "temporarily" closed, until further notice. Good luck with that! The rest of February has temperatures not far from freezing. The change of state of H2O between gas, water and ice can explain a lot of those temperatures. Then we are into March - more of the same but a bit warmer. Skating the Rideau Canal in Ottawa started in 1970 but is highly unlikely in 2024. Why? 

I was a very keen but naive "furcaster" in 1976.  So much to learn to make a difference! But along with the burgeoning science of meteorology, I was also able to witness first-hand, the impacts of global warming and climate change. I started doing presentations on those topics along with severe weather (which goes hand-in-hand with climate change) in 1988 and never stopped. The clients I served much-preferred realism in my furcasts as opposed to abstract predictions (untruths) of the environment.

The following graph summarizes what we witnessed and what the knowledgeable Climate Scientists of the Atmospheric Environment Service were accurately predicting. 


Sadly 2023 will be the latest in the string of record hot years. The following image from October 2023 highlights that the poles are warming faster than the equatorial regions just as forecast. Snow melting from the poles exposes a darker surface that efficiently absorbs the sun's energy. The weakening jet stream follows a highly meandering path along the line of latitude. Blocking weather patterns and split atmospheric flows create a different sort of weather! The public has learnt the hard way about "atmospheric rivers" (see the 2009 COMET Module - Satellite Feature Identification: Atmospheric Rivers by Singleton Philly), drought, heat and freezing rain. 

I am the last of my groundhog colony. Scorching temperatures have dried the soils so that even dirt will blaze now. There is a lot of peat and humus to further fuel the flames. The Boreal forest is comprised of spruce and pine that are loaded with resins ready to explode with the intensity of several nuclear bombs. 

Fort McMurray wildfires 2016

Even ground hogs can be educated and read! "Fire Weather" by my friend John Vaillant is essentially a textbook on the science and sociological aspects of climate change disguised as an action tale about the Fort McMurray wildfires. If you only have time to read 25 pages in 2024, please read Chapter 20. The planet is almost a quarter of the way into the Century of Fire and is on the threshold of "OnePointFive-Celsius" with full steam ahead into the Petrocene.

Be prepared for another smokey, hot and dangerous fire season in 2024. It will start early and probably not even end. 'Zombie fires' continue to burn even under thick layers of snow... only to be reborn in the spring. 

I was one lucky ground hog to make it 35-plus years in the Canadian weather service. I used satellite data to monitor the actual environment; those sensors do not lie. The Ottawa Boss Hog answer to the climate crisis was to threaten those who used the words "climate change" in a sentence. Those were apparently four letter words. 

This naive hog survived two maybe three program review purges that threatened to terminate my furcasting career prematurely.  The new Boss Hog promised change and even included the forbidden words in the name of the department. Sadly nothing has changed and Canada is racing Russia to the bottom of the heap of laggards in the response to the climate crisis. 

For those who noticed, I had a makeover
from albino to brown...  No sun or shadow at 
Singleton on the morning of February 2nd.

Boss Hogs may think of me as an activist… but Singleton Philly is just a realist who wanted to contribute positively. Now he is watching the tipping points tumble. A few developers continue to get filthy rich with one or two more big paydays using the fossil fuels of the Petrocene. 

Singleton Philly tried to make a difference from within… I was one naive little chuck - tried hard but completely failed the next generation.

The carbon footprint is very small within my Sanctuary - planting trees, looking after nature and painting pictures of my surviving friends.

Have a good day eh!

Warmest regards and keep your paddle in the water,

Phil the Furcaster Chadwick 

Friday, December 29, 2023

What Goes Up ...

Hot Air Balloon over
Watershed Farm  at the crest of
the Oak Ridges Moraine 2002
What Goes Up ... must come down. One of my topics to teach in the Training Branch of the then Atmospheric Environment Service in the mid-eighties, was the Tephigram (invented by Napier Shaw in 1915). The apparent mash of lines baffled many of the students but the Tephigram Thermodynamic Chart was really a thing of beauty. Those lines could reveal the nuances of the current state of the atmosphere that were unavailable elsewhere. The Tephigram was all about conserving energy (entropy) - not only the energy in the atmosphere but the work required by meteorologists to really understand the weather.  

I have frequently used the metaphor of "hot air balloons" to place the image of air parcels in the reader's imagination. The atmosphere's reality is even simpler and starts with the Ideal Gas Law. There will be no complex mathematics or science but at the end of this blog, you will be able to read the cloud shapes to deduce the vertical profile of the atmospheric ocean - and vice versa.  It really is that simple. 

The Ideal Gas Law states that for a parcel of air, the multiple of Pressure times Volume is directly proportional to its Temperature (PV=nRT). If we do not change the energy content of that parcel, one can follow the air in its vertical travels within the atmosphere. If the hot air balloon (of constant volume) remains warmer than its environment, it will continue to rise away from its starting point - an unstable situation. A balloon that becomes cooler than its environment must sink back to where it again matches the temperature of the vertical profile- a stable environment. This is the basis of thermodynamic graphs like the Canadian Tephigram or the American Skew-T. These graphs both have a vertical axis of height that mimics the height in the real atmosphere. 

Knowledge of the vertical profile of the atmosphere is absolutely essential if one wants to understand and forecast the weather. Here is where my favourite type of balloon was essential. For every parcel of air, meteorologists need to know the pressure, dry-bulb temperature, dew-point temperature and wind. The drift of the balloon in time and space allows the calculation of the atmospheric winds. 

Sable Island Radiosonde "Shack" May 1985 off the
southeast shore of Nova Scotia. Releasing a weather balloon
 is far more challenging than you might suspect. 

These atmospheric measurements are typically measured twice a day using radiosonde instruments tethered to a weather balloon. Similar measurements can now be more economically made using satellite data. In addition, commercial aircraft can continuously sample these quantities and relay the information to be fed into the computer simulations of the atmosphere. Times may have changed, the the vertical information about the atmosphere is still the crux of the forecast. 


Introducing the Lines of the Tephigram 

The pressure at any level of the atmosphere is just the weight of the air above that level. As one travels upward within the air column, there must be less air above and thus the pressure must be lower. Keeping the energy content of the constant volume air parcel unchanged, the temperature of the air parcel must decrease as the pressure decreases (P varies directly with T). These are adiabatic motions in which neither heat nor moisture are added to the parcel. A parcel of air that is not saturated, cools at the dry adiabatic lapse rate of 9.8 degrees Celsius per kilometre rise in altitude. The "Dry Adiabats" are straight brown lines in the Tephigram. 

But air parcels contain moisture! If the moisture in that air parcel remains as water vapour, that air parcel still cools at the dry adiabatic lapse rate of 9.8 degrees Celius per kilometre. That rate of cooling continues until the temperature of the air parcel reaches the dewpoint. At that temperature, the air parcel is saturated and can no longer contain all of the water vapour - some of which must condense out as water droplets. That precipitation falls out of the parcel and is gone... 

The dashed, brown Mixing Ratio Lines in the above graphic, start at the Parcel Dew Point Temperature. The dew point which is a measure of the amount of water vapour that a saturated air parcel can hold at that pressure has a lapse rate of about 1.8 degrees Celius per kilometre (the dashed, brown, straight lines). The amount of moisture within that air parcel is read in grams of water per kilogram of dry air. That quantity is the brown number read by following the Mixing Ratio Lines down to the bottom of the Tephigram. 

The condensation process releases the heat of vaporization (latent heat) into the air parcel which offsets some of the cooling of the dry adiabatic lapse rate.  From this point upward, the parcel of air is saturated and the excess water vapour is shed as precipitation while the latent heat energy is contained within the air parcel. 

The moist adiabatic lapse rate is only about half of the dry adiabatic lapse rate - 4 to 6 degrees Celius per kilometre. The amount of heat of vaporization released into the parcel is dependent on the amount of water vapour condensed out. There is less water vapour in the upper atmosphere so these curved moist adiabatic lapse rate lines straighten out at higher elevations to become nearly parallel to the dry adiabatic lapse rates. The "Moist Adiabats" are shaded, curved brown areas on the Tephigram. 

Note that the amount of moisture remaining in the saturated parcel rising along the moist adiabat can be read by following the Mixing Ratio Lines down to the bottom of the Tephigram. 

When saturated parcels of air start to descend, they immediately are no longer saturated and warm at the dry adiabatic lapse rate. This is what happens when virga falls from elevated clouds but evaporates before reaching the ground and becoming classified as bonafide precipitation. 

The vertical, adiabatic path of any parcel in the atmosphere can be followed or predicted using these simple concepts and the graphs that describe them. The main reason that tephigrams are used by the Meteorological Service of Canada is the property that areas contained by the curves have equal energies for equal areas. This is immensely valuable when diagnosing convective storms.

Applying the Tehpigram Concepts to a Convectively Unstable Atmosphere

The following graphic summarizes the main points of interest for a convectively unstable Environmental Temperature Profile (ETP) which is the heavy black line in the following graphic. The above concepts will be revisited and perhaps better explained using this example. 
A simplified version of the Tephigram with the Important Levels Labelled
The Wet Bulb Potential Temperature is a conservative property characteristic
of  an air mass

An air parcel rising from Level A at Pressure p0 immediately becomes cooler than the Environmental Temperature Profile, ETP. That parcel will stop rising unless the Convective Inhibition (CIN) energy is provided by some lifting mechanism like wind turbulence. 

At point D, the parcel cooling along the dry adiabat matches the dew point that was lifted along the mixing ration lines. At Level B, the air parcel becomes saturated and can hold no more moisture. The  Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) is the base of the cloud. 

From Point D to C, the air parcel is still cooler than the environment and reliant on the lifting mechanism to keep it going upward. Wind turbulence is the most likely agent to get this work done. 

At Point C the parcel becomes warmer than the environment and rises like a hot air balloon. This is the Level of Free Convection (LFC). From C to E, the parcel accelerates upward gaining kinetic energy (the red hatched area identified as CAPE, Convective Available Potential Energy) on its journey. The level of maximum buoyancy is where the temperature excess above that of the environment is maximized. 

At Point E, the parcel becomes colder than the environment but gets to spend the kinetic energy that it picked up above C and the level of free convection. The rising parcel spends all of its convective energy (CAPE)  to reach Point F - and the convective cloud is Finished. 

Vertical Stability Determined by the Orientation of the  Environmental Temperature Profile (ETP)

The concept of vertical stability on the Environmental Temperature Profile (ETP) is essential to understand the clouds. Those ideas are explained again using the relative orientations of the ETP as compared to the moist and dry adiabats. 

Now to apply this information to cloud watching:

The cloudy bases at the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) will reveal how the air parcel arrived at that level:

  • surface heating and convective air parcel ascent
  • turbulent wind mixing 

The cloud tops will reveal:

  • how much energy the air parcels gained on their ascent
  • the strength of the inversion

The cloud depth is either:

  • for convective clouds the extent of the unstable layer from LCL through the LFC to E and finally F where all of the CAPE has been used up. 
  • the amplitude of the gravity waves in the stable environment
If the air parcels are lifted by heating from the ground, the "hot air balloons" rise in an organized fashion to reach the lifted condemnation level. The cloud bases must be level and uniform.

If the cloud tops are like cauliflower blooms, the air parcels are rising vigorously in an unstable atmosphere with lots of convective, buoyant energy (CAPE). 

If the cloud tops are flat and smooth, the air parcels have reached their equilibrium level and expended all of their accumulated convective energy (at F for finished in the above graphic). 

Towering Cumulus viewed over New York State looking south across the St. Lawrence River from Brockville. An example of an unstable  Environmental Temperature Profile (ETP). Daytime heating of the surface does all of the work to lift the air parcels to the LCL and LFC. 


Suppose the air parcels are lifted by turbulent mixing, especially over rugged terrain. In that case, the cloud bases must be turbulent. As well as the lifted condensation level is distorted by the terrain and the nonuniform mixing of the air parcels.

Turbulent stratocumulus viewed over eastern Ontario looking northwest across some fine farmland. An example of turbulent winds lifting the air parcels to the LCL.


A stable environment is where the air parcel rises into a warmer environment which encourages the cooler parcels to return to their original level - starting point. A parcel that is descending in a stable environment remains warmer than the atmosphere and returns buoyant back to where it starts. The air parcel behaves like a rubber ducky in the bathtub. If one adds a horizontal wind to blow the rubber duck, the trace of the path of the duck is a gravity wave oriented perpendicular to that wind. 

If the environment is stable, look for stratiform, layered clouds and gravity waves. The wind at cloud level must be perpendicular to those gravity waves like waves on a lake. 

Regular bands of smooth-edged clouds reveal the gravity waves of air rising into and through the wave crests and then sinking into the troughs of the gravity waves. Classic gravity wave patterns are revealed when the flow straddles the lifted condensation level. One may be able to watch the cloud form on the upwind edges approaching the wave crest and dissipating tendrils subsiding into the troughs: The entire pattern tends to shift with the wind in the atmospheric frame of reference. 

The same circulations occur with or without moisture tracers. When the LCL is above the circulation there will be no cloud created. If the LCL is below the layer of gravity waves, all that might be witnessed is the regular cloud thickening in the crest regions or thinning in the wave troughs. 


In an unstable environment, a rising air parcel remains warmer than its environment and continues to climb away from its starting level. If the environment is unstable, look for cumuliform, convective clouds and cloud streets or streaks.  The wind at cloud level must be parallel to those Langmuir-type circulations. 

Langmuir Conceptual Model of Streaks in an Unstable Environment

Since the wind parallels the cloud bands, the lines will not shift significantly in any lateral direction. Individual cloud elements will move along that line in the direction of the wind.

Langmuir streaks are most commonly witnessed as snowsqualls which result when cold air flows over a warm body of water. Langmuir streaks also parallel the jet stream if the atmosphere has an unstable layer below the tropopause. 


The next step in making the Tephigram a vital tool to employ in understanding the weather is to add the hodograph the vertical plot of observed winds to the side of the chart. The hodograph includes the earth-frame winds as measured from the surface to as high as the weather balloon goes before it pops. Shifting winds in the vertical determine many meteorological quantities like thermal advection, helicity and storm structure.  

The Tephigram provides a great deal of information about the atmosphere. This Blog just scratches the surface but provides enough to understand and appreciate the cloud shapes.  


Phil the Forecaster at Training Branch 1986

The secrets of the real atmosphere are now at your fingerprints although I much prefer the atmospheric frame of reference winds - but that is another story. 

The characteristics of the bottom, sides and top of every cloud can be deduced by keeping this simplified Tephigram in mind. The Tephigram was my friend and a vital requirement to understand the actual atmospheric ocean - along with remote sensing (satellite and radar) of course... I never put myself in harm's way of the weather when I could study even the most severe conditions from a safe distance.

Warmest regards and keep your paddle in the water,

Phil the Forecaster Chadwick

PS: If you made it this far, give yourself a gold star! You are on the way to understanding the wonder of the weather. 


Monday, September 4, 2023

I Love Weather..


I recently attended a meeting of local residents considering the possibility of forming a lake association. The question was asked: 
"What do you love about the lake?"

Thirty seconds were allotted for the response so that the forty or fifty people in attendance could all get a chance to voice their favourite thing. That was not enough time. My ten-second response boiled down to "I Love Weather" Please let me explain.

As Dorothy said, "There is No Place Like Home." Place has always been vitally important to us. If you are happy in your own skin and your environment, there is no reason to go anywhere. Travel is not as much fun as it used to be anyway. We spent more than twenty years looking before finding our Sanctuary at Singleton Lake. That time and effort devoted to searching was well spent … along with all of our savings. 

The boundaries of our search area were defined mainly by the weather. As with every reliable forecast, one must start with the big picture before you can drill down to the specifics. Climate change was thus the starting point and those parameters were well established even in 1980 when the legwork began. 

Michael Mann's best estimate of global temperature trends including uncertainty - the "hockey stick' graph. The Earth was going to warm quickly as climate tipping points started to fall like dominoes.
Another way of graphing the Global Temperature variations since the days of Christ. 
There is nothing natural about these anthropogenic trends.


Looking at recent history, the global temperature anomaly
for every month from 1880 to 2021. Frankly, the data
since the Industrial Revolution is overwhelming!

Simply, the planet was going to warm with the accelerating release of greenhouse gases (GHG). Initial melting of snow and ice over the poles would result in unequal warming as polar reflective surfaces were turned into dark soils that absorbed the sun's energy. The poles would warm at rates exceeding four times that of the rest of the globe. The temperature gradients between the equator and poles would weaken. The jet stream driven by this contrast in latitudinal temperature would also slow down and evolve into a high amplitude meandering current. The weakened jet stream favours a seven-wave pattern along a mid-latitude path around the Globe. See Wave Number 7

The persistent long-wave pattern as revealed in the    
temperature anomaly chart.
 
Geography and the Rocky Mountains would encourage a persistent atmospheric long-wave ridge to form over the West Coast. Hot and generally dry weather would predominate in the ridge although flooding deluges from atmospheric rivers would certainly penetrate the ridge periodically. 

A long-wave trough would dig downstream over eastern North America. Eastern Ontario was right in the centre of that meteorological trough and would enjoy cooler temperatures, clouds and more precipitation than the West Coast - at least for a while. 

The macro-scale forecast pointed us to search for home in "Eastern Ontario". It was time to drill down beyond climate change and consider other important weather factors. 

Severe convection is an important concern. Having spent a career seeing what supercellular thunderstorms might do to a home, convection was a vital forecast parameter. 

The lake breeze convergence lines cast "convective shadows"   
along the shores of the Great Lakes often extending inland 
100 km from the water's edge.
The Lake Ontario lake breeze convergence line is an essential focus for summer convection. Thunderstorms need not only heat and moisture as fuels but also low-level convergence lines to initiate the convection. The temperature contrast between land and water surfaces creates lake breeze convergence lines. The one that develops along the north shore of Lake Ontario guides thunderstorms along a line that extends eastward through Lyndhurst to Athens. Near Athens, the increasing distance from Lake Ontario weakens that convergence and thunderstorms tend to turn to the right into areas of higher heat, humidity and fuel. 

Right movers coming off the tip of the Lake Ontario
convergence line tend to make the turn for
stage right and move southeastward near Athens

This Lake Ontario Lake Breeze convection line was the northern edge of our search area

Summer weather might be scary and more exciting but winter weather actually has more societal impact. I had worked long shifts during the "The Ice Storm of 1998". Freezing rain and ice accretion are not to be taken lightly. Freezing rain in the Ottawa Valley and along the St. Lawrence provide both the eastern and southern boundaries for our search area.  

Winter snowsqualls were another concern. It is best to be able to see the hood of your car when you are driving. Whiteouts are potentially lethal. The only lake-induced snowsqualls that impact eastern Ontario must originate from Lake Ontario. The Arctic air must both be sufficiently cold and the low-level winds properly aligned to generate snowsqualls. The orientation of Lake Ontario encourages westerly winds that can inundate the Tug Hills of New York State with paralyzing snow accumulations. Only southwesterly winds can direct snowsqualls down the St Lawrence River Valley. As the winds turn more to the south, the snowsqualls tend to lose their alignment and become warmer as well. Winds of 230 degrees or less are not effective snowsquall generators. Snowsqualls provide a refinement on the southern boundary of the search area. 

When all of the above climate and weather factors are considered, the resulting search area becomes the Goldilock Triangle of Eastern Ontario. The climate and weather had narrowed our search window considerably.

The summer Lake Ontario lake breeze front defined the northern edge. The right-moving supercells tracking southeast around Athens were the eastern flank of the search area. The 230-degree vector from Kingston and the west end of Lake Ontario was the limit to the south. The major highways completed or reinforced the western and southern boundaries. We did not wish to play in the traffic.

I had never explored the Goldilock Triangle of Eastern Ontario as a kid with my canoe. Not too hot… not too cold (but enough to freeze out the spongy moth at minus 29 Celsius in the winter) ... supercellular convection less likely.. . snowsqualls improbable ...  long-duration freezing rain rare if at all... The area was just right as Goldilocks would say. 

There are other considerations as well. They all seem to come down to conditions that are not natural and impact the senses. 

  • Enjoying a really dark night sky with millions of stars in view is important. A starry, starry night was important to Vincent as well. Light pollution is becoming more invasive as populations grow. 
  • No multi-lane, busy highways nearby. Sound pollution can be a problem and sound can carry great distances under a nighttime or frontal inversion (although my hearing loss might mitigate that.) 
  • Visual pollution includes almost anything that is not natural. Signs, signs, everywhere a sign was a favourite song by the Five Man Electrical Band from my youth.
  • We have been in areas where you can actually taste and smell the air you are breathing. Not good.

The area in question was also in the centre of the north-south nature corridor linking the Adirondacks to Algonquin and the wild watersheds of western Quebec including the famed Dumoine. Several groups were already active in the area. Linda and I share the missions of these organizations. 

Frontenac Arch Biosphere and the 
Queens University Biological Station


Algonquin to Adirondacks Conservation Association, A2A

The final, very limited search area had been identified. 

Singleton Lake was even absent on many of the maps we
 had been using in our search.

Linda discovered the perfect property in the autumn of 2006 encompassing the eastern shore of Singleton Lake. In fact, I credit her with everything including the design of our one-level home. Surround yourself with nature and you will find a good place to live - no need to travel anywhere. 

Our goal was to have a minimal footprint, build efficiently and green and then work in harmony with nature. That included planting thousands of trees, erecting hundreds of birdhouses, protecting turtle nests and creating habitats for all kinds of species that share the land with us. 

The Singleton Sanctuary is surrounded by unique and rare environments that deserve respect and conservation. The BioBlitz of 2010 identified almost 400 species that we share the ecosystem with. That number has hopefully increased since 2010 due to the efforts undertaken. Some disease-resistant butternut trees we have planted still have not shown signs of being infected by the canker - sadly, some have.

Eight species at risk were documented during the BioBlitz including:

            • Cerulean Warbler (SC
            • Grass Pickerel (SC)
            • Bald eagle (SC)
            • Monarch (SC)
            • Butternut (END)
            • Stinkpot (THR)
            • Map turtle (SC)
            • Ratsnake (THR)
Special Concern (SC), “species of special concern” means a wildlife species that may become a threatened or an endangered species because of a combination of biological characteristics and identified threats.
Threatened (THR), "any species which is likely to become an endangered species within the foreseeable future throughout all or a significant portion of its range."
Endangered (END), "Endangered" – "very high risk of extinction in the wild in the near future"; 

As an added bonus, the Singleton Sanctuary is also in the middle of the path of mid-latitude synoptic-scale storms... the perfect place to be for an artist and meteorologist! The weather is different and inspiring every day.

We are all stewards of the land, privileged to appreciate its beauty during our lifetime but responsible for leaving the environment better off for the future and all inhabitants...

The Singleton Sanctuary is equally special in the winter. 

"I Love The Weather.." was the short answer provided. The above was the long answer and closer to the whole truth and nothing but the truth... so help me... 

Warmest regards and keep your paddle in the water,

Phil the Forecaster Chadwick