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| #2435 "Overcast Sunflowers" |
Keep you paddle in the water and warmest regards,
Phil the Forecaster Chadwick
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| Contrail Headed to Pearson International midday on Winter Solstice 2021 |
Science Tuesday "Weather Watching Guide - Contrails" from this past February described how contrails could talk. As a result of decades of observation, I knew what this contrail was saying. You might know the answer intuitively without refreshing the science background. It is OK to guess but clients of my meteorological predictions when I was employed by Environment Canada, preferred the science. Clients making important decisions based on those forecasts often asked "how and why" I knew something should happen.
On another Science Tuesday, I wrote about the down-side of contrails in "Blue Sky Blues". Unnatural alteration of the natural environment was a theme of that Blog entry and many others. The 2021 ozone hole reached its maximum area on October 7, peaking at 24.8 million square kilometers – roughly the size of North America. This hole ranks as the 13th largest since 1979 and is likely still persisting into December. This leads back to the application of sunscreen.
My goal is simply to learn more about the natural world and its laws and maybe share that information. Perhaps through science we can help protect nature and make sound, ecological practices a part of everyday life. Listening to nature is a good thing. We should all do it more often.
Keep you paddle in the water and warmest regards,
Phil the Forecaster
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| #2564 "Singleton Sunday Thanksgiving Sunset" 8x10 |
As per my sunset ritual, I watched a patch of overhead altocumulus drifting southeastward. Meanwhile the atmospheric frame relative winds were southwesterly as revealed by the distinctive wind gravity waves within that cloud. Wind waves in the atmosphere are shorter wavelength with less amplitude as compared to atmospheric swells. The sky was clear to the horizon and the setting sun. "Orange sky at night, sailor's delight". The saying calls for a "red" sky but the meaning is the same. The atmosphere was dry as far as I could paint and the saying predicted a cloud free and precipitation free day to follow. I was troubled by the angle that the wind waves made with that sharp cloud edge and wondered why...
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| Water Vapour imagery corresponding to the Singleton Thanksgiving sunset of #2564 |
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| Satellite Overview of the Cyclonic Companion (left) and the Anticyclonic Companion (right) Separated by the Jet which is near the centre of the Warm Conveyor Belt |
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| Closer View of the Anticyclonic Companion with the Cloud Enhanced in the Swell and Wind Wave Crests Looking Downward from the Satellite View An Example of Constructive Interference |
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| Conceptual Model Compared to the Water Vapour View - A Match (Close Counts in Meteorology) |
The portion of the conceptual model that is displayed in any given weather situation is dependent on the relative amplitudes of the swell and wind gravity waves and the lifted condensation level of the atmosphere. The circulations are always present but without water vapour or condensed cloud droplets, they are invisible.
The following graphic places the Singleton view of the small portion of the deformation zone within the larger scale Conveyor Belt Conceptual Model.
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| The Three (Four) Dimensional Atmosphere can be a Challenge to Interpret - Even for the Experts |
The sharp back cloud edge that I painted was the western edge of the crest of an atmospheric ocean swell. The enhanced bands within that swell crest were wind wave crests in the anticyclonic flow. The fact that the wind crests made an angle with the swell edge revealed that there were two different processes at work. Dynamic forces in the atmosphere create the weather that we enjoy and the approaching conditions were not fair.
Note that the double cyclonic DZ in the above analysis is entirely within the upper trough while the bowed DZ stretches from the upper trough to the downstream ridge that is east of Singleton. Also note that there is more cloud (upward vertical velocity) associated with the cyclonic companion of the conceptual model than the anticyclonic branch. That is enough information for now - no need to go down the satellite detail, rabbit hole even if there is so much more to see and understand ... One satellite image could keep me busy for hours...
With these new pieces of data, one must amend the Biblical forecast for the following day from "fair- sunny with no rain" to "cloudy with rain"... This is a actual example of a specific weather situation and a real painting. I was thinking "red sky at night" when I did that art although I was troubled by that angle of the wind waves. The take home message is that nature is always right. Our interpretation could be faulty if we do not listen to all of the facts.
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| #2564 "Singleton Sunday Thanksgiving Sunset" In Progress - Starting tithe the meteorology |
The clouds always tell the truth even if humans might not fully understand. I paint what I see and nature always makes sense even if it might take some effort to unravel those lines in the sky.
Keep you paddle in the water and warmest regards...
Phil the Forecaster Chadwick
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| # 2570 "Cirrus Sunset from the Bottom of the Atmospheric Ocean" |
Enjoying this Singleton sunset made me really ponder the orientation of these particular lines in the sky. The complexity of the patterns really emphasized that we do indeed reside at the bottom of a very deep and very dynamic ocean of air. The answers were not immediately obvious. I need to explain this sunset a bit.
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| The meridional flow of the jet stream revealed a southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico over all of Ontario. |
The dark sunset colours low on the horizon were the glow of the setting sun catching dust in the boundary layer of the atmosphere, stirred up by a daytime of wind and human activities. Smoke and the exhaust of industries from around the busy ports of the Great Lakes would easily explain those somewhat murkier colours.
The area of the water vapour imagery where I sketched in the double-cyclonic deformation zone conceptual model, shows a stronger northeasterly flow actually sinking as it headed southward. The cyclonic x's were actually 3D vortex tubes stretching through the depth of the atmosphere. The moisture over Singleton marked by the little yellow star, was actually rising as it headed northward. This pattern was not moving far but was likely to shift to the southwest with the stronger winds as I noticed the following morning.
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| Classic Water Vapour Imagery revealing the Meridional Flow Pattern |
The highly contorted flow revealed by the water vapour imagery, was typical of the wave number seven of the weakening jet stream. Instead of following the lines of latitude as a zonal, strong current of air, the jet stream was more likely to follow the meridional lines of longitude northward and then southward again in a series of ox-bow lakes. That kind of pattern was over Singleton in that sunset sky and it also told the story of climate change.
This sunset weather story was unusual in that the weather was approaching Singleton from the east. The typical progression of weather from the west was upset and I think this would cause the viewer some anxiety although they might not really comprehend why. I remember stories of ancient peoples being terrified at the sight of an eclipse. We are not much different. At one time, these strongly blocked and convoluted patterns were very rare.
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| RGB imagery like this Nighttime Microphysics Image, combines several channels and typically complex combinations of channels to the red, green, and blue colours. The physical properties of the earth-atmosphere system are better understood by using both colours and tones to paint the data. |
Satellite imagery reveals details and complexities that could keep professional meteorologists entertained for days. I know that from experience! Most people should not venture down that rabbit hole. Always remember that the atmosphere is a complex three or four dimensional flow. It is sufficient to just understand the big picture, at least to start.
The clouds always tell the truth even if humans might not like to hear it. I paint what I see and nature always makes sense even if it might take some effort to unravel the lines in the sky.
Keep you paddle in the water and warmest regards...
Phil the Forecaster Chadwick
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| #2570 "Cirrus Sunset from the Bottom of the Atmospheric Ocean" October 2021, 11x14 |
The world has changed much since I became a meteorologist in 1976. Atmospheric scientists were well aware of the impacts of fossil fuels consumption on the atmosphere as early as 1824. I wrote about the history of climate change science in "True Confessions from Singleton Philly". I updated the current state of climate change, where we are headed and why in "The Weather Makers by Tim Flannery - Become Informed and Involved in a Good Way" and "The Weather Makers - What has happened in Fifteen Years?". Mankind is rewriting climate which is the average weather, with each passing year. To witness these impacts in a single lifetime is unthinkable. Deformation zones are just another indication that this is true.
All of the deformation zone flavours are on the increase with climate change. The poles are warming up much faster than the equator as the snow and ice melts to expose darker, less reflective surfaces. These low albedo surfaces absorb the sun's energy and in turn, warms the atmosphere. The temperature difference between the equator and the poles drive the jet stream. As a result, the jet stream is transforming more into a meandering trickle than a fast flowing river of high speed air. The ox bow patterns of the weakening jet stream are the perfect place to create swirls and deformation zones.
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| Historical Jet Stream Left - Weaker Jet Today Right |
The distribution of the mountain ranges and oceans of the earth also play important roles in deviating the atmospheric currents. As a result the preferred number of waves around the globe is seven. That means that seven troughs of low pressure are separated by seven ridges of high pressure along a line of mid-latitude encircling the globe. You can safely expect a predominance of cyclonic swirls in those troughs and anticyclonic swirls in the ridges. Your extended Coriolis Hand with its fingers pointing with the flow, will convince you that this is true.
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| Where to Find the Different Flavours of Swirls |
Where do cyclonic swirls dominate? Cyclonic swirls can be found in upper troughs of low pressure in the atmosphere. The trough is the red area in the above graphic.
Where do anticyclonic swirls dominate? Anticyclonic swirls can be found in upper ridges of high pressure in the atmosphere. The ridge is the blue area in the above graphic.
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| Double Cyclonic Deformation Zone - Big X added to another Big X |
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| Double Anticyclonic Deformation Zone - Big N added to another Big N |
Winds that veer (turn clockwise) with height and/or time will generate a double cyclonic DZ. Similarly winds that back (turn counter-clockwise) with height and/or time will generate a double anticyclonic DZ.
A larger deformation zone that spans a trough into a ridge with a bowed shaped pattern pointing northward (and rising) is characteristic of a large warm conveyor belt and a storm. Similarly a deformation zone that spans a ridge into a downstream trough with a bowed shaped pattern pointing southward (and sinking) is characteristic of a large cold outbreak following in the wake of a storm.
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| Bowed Deformation Zone - Big X added to a Big N |
The best place to view these deformation zone is certainly water vapour satellite imagery. Typically, one can only few a small segment of a deformation zone from the ground. From space, one can see the entire conceptual model at work.
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| Jim Day Rapids Double Anticyclonic DZ |
For those who are interested, the same patterns can be seen not only in duckweed, but also in oatmeal and your coffee cup if you use cream. In fact, every fluid can be investigated and better understood by applying these conceptual models.
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| Coffee and Cream Swirls and Deformation Zones |
The shape of the lines in the sky tell the story of the weather. The vocabulary of these tales has been developed in the past few Blogs. It took me many Night Shifts when the weather was quiet (which was not often), to piece all of this together. Some of this material can be found in various Modules on the COMET Website. The rest is being presented here for the first time although this material was certainly the content of many fireside chats in the Weather Centre when the team was determining what the concern of the day would be and where the resources would be most wisely allocated.
This content has been a bit more meteorological and scientific that I had intended but it illustrates just how much information can be gleaned from those lines in the sky. I will return to more art than science in the next Blog.
Keep you paddle in the water and warmest regards...
Phil the Forecaster Chadwick
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| #1828 "Just Another November Sunset" |
What can the shape of the deformation zone reveal? How are these different shapes created? Deformation zones come in three flavours and they are all very different but all equally tasty.
It is helpful to examine each confluent asymptote separately. If the confluent asymptote is curved cyclonically, the vorticity maximum or cyclonic swirl is the stronger of the paired swirls on either side of that confluent asymptote.
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| Cyclonic Asymptote - The Red X Swirl Stronger in the Paired Swirls across the Asymptote Let's Call this Asymptote Pattern "Big X" |
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| Anticyclonic Asymptote - The Blue N Swirl Stronger in the Paired Swirls across the Asymptote Let's Call this Asymptote Pattern "Big N" |
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| "Big X" Asymptote Pattern together with a "Big N" The Bowed Deformation Zone |
Now let's put a "Big X" Asymptote Pattern together with another "Big X".
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| "Big X" Asymptote Pattern together with another "Big X" The Double Cyclonic DZ |
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| "Big N" Asymptote Pattern together with another "Big N" The Double Anticyclonic DZ |
Imagine yourself standing at the equator with your arms outstretched - one arm pointing north and the other pointing south. In a full day of earth’s rotation, you will experience no rotation at all.
Now do the same thing at say the North Pole. You will note that both of your outstretched arms must point south. You will rotate with the full measure of the Earth’s rotation. It is certainly no coincidence that when you direct the fingers of your Coriolis Hand in the direction of the Earth's rotation while at either the South or North Pole, that your Coriolis Thumb points upward. Nature always makes sense if we take the time to understand.
The swirls that shape the confluent asymptotes are much stronger at higher latitudes than they are at the equator as a result of the Coriolis force. The shapes of those swirls reveal much about the weather but we will save that for the next day. It is enough to taste the three different favours of the deformation zone conceptual model in one sitting. This might explain why I really enjoy the weather and meteorology of the high latitudes. The cloud and moisture patterns are full of stories just waiting to be read.
Keep you paddle in the water and warmest regards...
Phil the Forecaster Chadwick
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| #2361 "Singleton Sunset Swirl" with Conceptual Models Applied as viewed from the Earth Vantage |
In “The Swirls and Deformation Zone Revisited” I concentrated on the view from space. I thought the explanation of the cloud features would be easier from a single satellite perspective. Let’s revisit those cloud features but this time from the ground up as well. After all, we do our paddling and cloud gazing from the earth’s surface.
In the following graphic, I have turned the imagery so that it closely fits the earth view that I enjoyed while doing the painting. North is pointing to the right on the page.
Across the top of the graphic, I have again included the Water Vapour image from satellite, followed by the view looking downward at duckweed from my kayak which is followed by the conveyor belt and deformation zone conceptual models. The view as identified on the water vapour imagery is toward the southwest and Lake Ontario. The dynamic features identified are the same in every image, including my painting which was my interpretation of the same sunset sky on May 22nd, 2020. If you faithfully paint what you observe, the physics, mathematics and meteorology must be true and accurate. Nature always tells the truth...
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| Top Down Space View Application of the Conceptual Models at the Top of the Graphic Superimposed on the Earth View Painting |
From the space view one can only see the tops of the cloud. The earth bound view allows one to see the bottom structure of the cloud. Both views are complementary in that they provide unique information about the features that might not be apparent in the other displays. The more facts that fit together like pieces in a puzzle, the more confidence we can place in our solution of the weather riddle.
The highest level of the warm conveyor belt leading the spring storm, has already passed east of Singleton. The sky above is not the deep blue of clear skies but is blanketed by thin cirrostratus that follows behind that highest level deformation zone.
The swells in the mid level altocumulus layer of moisture of the warm conveyor belt are not easily discernible from the satellite view. The details of the mid level cloud are masked by the highest layer of increasingly thick cirrostratus. Those swells are readily apparent from the earth bound view! Recall that atmospheric swells, like those in the ocean, are large amplitude and long wavelength gravity waves located far from the strong winds that originated them. Atmospheric swells are very common on the jet stream side of the deformation zone. Swells propagate right to the deformation zone largely unaffected by the divergence of the atmospheric frame relative winds at the col.
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| Atmospheric Gravity Waves Swells and Wind Waves |
I even observed and painted the gravity waves created by the wind swirling behind the mid level deformation zone. One can only expect these wind waves where there is sufficient atmospheric frame winds blowing – ie some distance away from the col. You will not witness significant atmospheric frame of reference winds near the col which is where the winds diverge from. Winds increase with distance from the col when you move along the divergent confluent asymptotes.
Note that the winds are calm in the sheltered eastern bay of Singleton Lake. This is the calm before the storm commonly found in the cold conveyor belt region of the conceptual model. The calm waters mirror the red sunset on the western horizon. The easterly breeze does create some ripples with the extended fetch by the time the breeze reaches the western basin of Singleton Lake. These ripples reflect the bluer, thin cirrostratus of the sky overhead and not the fiery sunset. I describe the Calm Before the Storm in "Weather Lessons for Everyone from the Cold Conveyor Belt Wizard".
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| #2361 "Singleton Sunset Swirl" |
Cloud shapes are formed within the free atmosphere that covers our spinning Globe. There are low clouds that are influenced by their life in the planetary boundary layer but we have not talked about them yet. The best vantage point to view and understand the lines and swirls is from the atmosphere itself. In Cloud Shapes and Lines in the Atmosphere , I described how cloud shapes develop and how it is so much easier to understand them from a frame of reference attached to the mean flow of the atmosphere.
If you point the thumb of you Coriolis Hand upward at every X, your fingers must curl in the direction of the flow.
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| Northern Hemisphere Right Coriolis Hand with Thumb pointing Up and my Fingers Curled Cyclonically |
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| Northern Hemisphere Right Coriolis Hand with Thumb pointing Down and my Fingers Curled Anticyclonically |
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| #2529 "Sleepy Time Sky Story" Looking west into the centre of the DZ Col and the Maw of the Approaching Storm... I love the weather! |
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| A Paddler's View of a Stroke in Duckweed |
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| A Meteorologist's View of a Stroke in Duckweed |
The deformation zone (DZ) has several stories to tell. And there are also two sides to every line just like there is two sides to every story. A single stroke of the paddle creates one line and four swirls. Each deformation zone line is composed of a col at the centre of the stroke, joining the starting point of the two divergent confluent asymptotes. Companion swirls are found on the opposite sides of the paddle stroke. Sympathetic, paired swirls develop on the opposite sides of those confluent asymptotes as a result of the fluid flow along the confluent asymptotes. In the duckweed frame of reference, these fluid vectors do not average to zero and the canoe (or kayak) is propelled forward. To transform this paddle stroke into the weather of the atmosphere, think of the paddle as moving the warm conveyor belt as it rises along the isentropic surface headed northward.
Deformation zones (DZ) can become your new best friend so please try to follow the explanation. Aside from gravity waves, every line in the atmosphere is indeed a deformation zone. The shape and location of every DZ must also reveal the relative intensities and location of each of the four swirls - and that tells you everything about the weather.
All of this bears repeating.. just in case you missed it the first time. Here is another way to look at the duckweed lines and swirls.
Since the deformation zone is the leading edge of the flow… and if this flow is moisture laden .. we can see the cloud associated with the warm moist air rising along the isentropic surface. By examining the swirls, we can also deduce which portion of the storm is aimed at our location at that moment. The cyclonic companion has a more upward and unstable flow and thus more weather. The anticyclonic companion has more downward and stable flow and less weather.
Which swirl companion is directed toward you is typically best revealed by watching the motion of the clouds on the moist side of the deformation zone - there will be more to watch and study on the cloudy side of the line. This step will also reveal the relative location of the col in our field of view. Get ready to point the fingers of your Coriolis Hand in the direction that the cloud is moving.
A similar discussion applies if the cloud is moving to the left along the moist side of the deformation zone - but you will be looking at the anticyclonic companion flow. Try it out.
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| Wind Waves Superimposed on Swells |
Wind gravity waves in the clouds can also reveal the direction of the flow in a painting such as that above when animation is not possible. Locally stronger winds will be found along the confluent asymptotes. As described in the previous Blog "Seeing Even More Gravity Wave Clouds", the wind gravity waves generated by stronger winds, must also have a longer wavelength. This will cause the wind gravity waves to appear to twist downwind along the deformation zone or embedded within the swells.
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| #2529 "Sleepy Time Sky Story" Further Practice available on the Painting Reality can be more complicated than my graphics |
Keep you paddle in the water and warmest regards...
Phil the Forecaster Chadwick
