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| #0828 "Standing Outside the Fire" Pixels Link |
It might be surprising to claim that the last conveyor belt to study is also the most important. Why? How? The flamboyant Warm Conveyor Belt takes heat and moisture energy as it rises northward. The powerful Dry Conveyor Belt transports dry and cool air to the south as it sinks. Both of these actions help to keep the earth in an energy balance. Both are responsible for the bulk of the energy found in mid-latitude storms.The Cold Conveyor Belt is not even wound up with any of the gears in the weather machine.
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| The Weather Machine Conveyor Belts Powering the Weather Cogs of Swirls and Vorticity Tubes |
Ahhh... but the cold conveyor belt controls the location of the surface warm front, the character of the precipitation and more importantly, it is the one that can keep people in touch with the nature of the weather. This will take some explaining.
The Cold Conveyor Belt (marked CCB in the figure as the blue flow) is even a challenge to analyze and diagnose. Typically this important flow is hidden under both the rising and moist Warm Conveyor Belt and even the sinking Dry Conveyor Belt - important partners in the weather dance. The Cold Conveyor Belt can’t even be seen on my go-to water vapour imagery. In fact, my observational platform for the Cold Conveyor Belt is actually Doppler Radar.
By relying on radar the important advantage of event lead time is largely lost. The severe weather forecaster becomes more of a severe weather observer when precipitation is required to witness the occurrence of an event. The patterns revealed on Doppler require precipitation to reveal the conveyor belts. Those Doppler radar patterns in the Cold Conveyor Belt can also be really complex. New Dual Pole Radar is extremely beneficial as well but again the events must already be happening to be revealed by the hydrometers being blown around with the winds.
The Satellite Palette which was largely published through COMET was based on my belief that satellite imagery was very much more than a cloud-no cloud observational tool. The cloud shapes and their characteristics reveal the weather story if one only understands the vocabulary. In addition I was convinced that radar was a lot more than just a rain-no rain observation. Together the patterns revealed in the satellite and radar imagery describe space, time and trends and could reveal what the real atmosphere was really up to.
The radar patterns were potentially more complex and full of artificial artifacts so I started with the satellite. But I believed that the same principles that I had applied to the satellite data could also be applied to the radar patterns. The Radar Palette was born. I thought that the interpretation of patterns was as much an art as a science so it was a logical sequence of study for me. This effort did not get published. I guess we just ran out of time. Meteorologists really liked the Radar Palette over in NOMEK and Scandinavia though.
The Radar Palette was based on the Conveyor Belt Conceptual Model. Classic examples of conventional and Doppler radar images were archived from every part of the mid-latitude storm. I used PowerPoint to link the main Entry-Splash Page to these examples. Each link included a description of the classic signatures, how to analyze and diagnose them and most importantly, what they meant for the weather machine. The PowerPoint approach was clunky but it worked well enough as a prototype waiting for the expertise of COMET to make the material come alive. I just wanted to demonstrate the potential of the Radar Palette. In the Entry-Splash Page the “C” stands for conventional radar, the “D” stands for Doppler while the “DP” was for Dual Pole which was coming on-line in 2007. Here are just a few samples of some of the concepts and radar patterns. I have not thought of this effort in over a decade so revisiting this brought back a lot of memories.
Here is the reference sheet for the Cold Conveyor Belt and its relation to the Warm Conveyor Belt. The cold air always leads in any weather dance. The light-headed warm air will ride over the dense cold air with a typical slope of a rise of 1 kilometre for every 200 kilometres of distance perpendicular to the surface front. Remember that every front is just the surface reflection of the three dimensional deformation zone skin which encapsulates the air mass. If the cold air is doing the soft shoe shuffle northward then the warm air at the surface must advance. If the cold air is doing the stroll parallel to the deformation zone then the front will be quasistationary.
It would take several books to thoroughly explain all of this effort but may I touch on a few things just to give you the idea of why remote sensing is so vital. I will focus on Doppler as conventional radar has been around since World War II and Dual Pole radars are still likely being deployed. The Doppler isodop is very important. The veering or backing of the isodop and the area enclosed can be related to the relative magnitudes of the warm and cold advections in the lower atmosphere.
I have presented “Basic Operational Doppler Applications” just a few times starting around 2007. The analysis and diagnosis of the Cold Conveyor Belt are vital to getting the precipitation forecast right. Important meteorology like warm and cold advection could be observed using Doppler. Differential thermal advections in the vertical could also reveal changes in stability. I named these characteristic patterns with catchy names in the hope that they might stick. I was especially proud of the “Screaming Eagle” pattern. I am still hoping that this material will gain an audience as optimism and persistence can be a good things.
If I may, I will reproduce a very few of these patterns and my Doppler applications here. It is not rocket science but it is close. I used these techniques to better understand the hidden Cold Conveyor Belt. The effort was worth it though in light of the fact that the Cold Conveyor Belt helps to controls the phase of the precipitation as well as the longevity of rare but vitally important events like freezing rain. The CCB is the Weather Wizard like the Professor of Oz who hid behind the curtain pulling the strings.
PS: There will be NO exam on this material...
The Cold Conveyor Belt (marked CCB in the figure as the blue flow) is even a challenge to analyze and diagnose. Typically this important flow is hidden under both the rising and moist Warm Conveyor Belt and even the sinking Dry Conveyor Belt - important partners in the weather dance. The Cold Conveyor Belt can’t even be seen on my go-to water vapour imagery. In fact, my observational platform for the Cold Conveyor Belt is actually Doppler Radar.
By relying on radar the important advantage of event lead time is largely lost. The severe weather forecaster becomes more of a severe weather observer when precipitation is required to witness the occurrence of an event. The patterns revealed on Doppler require precipitation to reveal the conveyor belts. Those Doppler radar patterns in the Cold Conveyor Belt can also be really complex. New Dual Pole Radar is extremely beneficial as well but again the events must already be happening to be revealed by the hydrometers being blown around with the winds.
The Satellite Palette which was largely published through COMET was based on my belief that satellite imagery was very much more than a cloud-no cloud observational tool. The cloud shapes and their characteristics reveal the weather story if one only understands the vocabulary. In addition I was convinced that radar was a lot more than just a rain-no rain observation. Together the patterns revealed in the satellite and radar imagery describe space, time and trends and could reveal what the real atmosphere was really up to.
The radar patterns were potentially more complex and full of artificial artifacts so I started with the satellite. But I believed that the same principles that I had applied to the satellite data could also be applied to the radar patterns. The Radar Palette was born. I thought that the interpretation of patterns was as much an art as a science so it was a logical sequence of study for me. This effort did not get published. I guess we just ran out of time. Meteorologists really liked the Radar Palette over in NOMEK and Scandinavia though.
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| PowerPoint Splash Landing Page for the Radar Palette |
It would take several books to thoroughly explain all of this effort but may I touch on a few things just to give you the idea of why remote sensing is so vital. I will focus on Doppler as conventional radar has been around since World War II and Dual Pole radars are still likely being deployed. The Doppler isodop is very important. The veering or backing of the isodop and the area enclosed can be related to the relative magnitudes of the warm and cold advections in the lower atmosphere.
I have presented “Basic Operational Doppler Applications” just a few times starting around 2007. The analysis and diagnosis of the Cold Conveyor Belt are vital to getting the precipitation forecast right. Important meteorology like warm and cold advection could be observed using Doppler. Differential thermal advections in the vertical could also reveal changes in stability. I named these characteristic patterns with catchy names in the hope that they might stick. I was especially proud of the “Screaming Eagle” pattern. I am still hoping that this material will gain an audience as optimism and persistence can be a good things.
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| The Warm Screaming Eagle Pattern |
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| The Headless Eagle Pattern |
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| The Headless Gull Pattern |
The Cold Conveyor Belt is best investigated by simple
observations that anyone can do. That is the subject for next Tuesday Science. It encourages us all to get out into nature to appreciate the beauty and science of the natural world. That is where we learn best...
Warmest regards and keep your paddle in the water,
Phil the Forecaster Chadwick
PS: There will be NO exam on this material...
2 comments:
Hi Phil,
I remember when the YYT weather office received a satellite receiver. Finally a snapshot of the weather, and successive pictures showing movement. Years of briefing ferry pilots to the Azores with hardly any information to a picture of the weather en route. Experienced pilots just wanted to see the picture.
WSO training led to comma cloud theory and conveyor belt instruction. I was fascinated with low-pressure area development and the interaction with the conveyor belts. Looking for 3 ball rain became an obsession.
I recently read a book called Storm written by George W. Steward printed in 1947. It's the story of a low pressure moving eastwards across the Pacific and into California. The author describes the interaction of weather, people, the earth, and the fluidity of air.
Keep up your good work Phil.
Johnny Lade.
Thank you so much my Friend... I had some unfinished stuff to publish. The Blogs allow that to get done. The Radar Palette was a huge amount of effort but I could not drum up any interest. The Performance Measurement work was even bigger but got even less air play. Not sure why but whatever, I bear the responsibility. I just wanted to try to move the science forward. It was fun as well to think all this stuff up... like day dreams. Some more stuff to come...
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