The Oldest Science

#2423 "Remembrance of a Orange Sunset"

Meteorology and forecasting is the oldest science – starting around 200,000 years ago. Cave people needed to be able to observe and correctly predict the most dangerous weather in order to endure. This brainy skill set was essential for survival. 

#2375 "Fire and Rain Coming"

There are dozens of weather references in the Bible. Some are even weather forecasts like Luke 12:54 “And he also said to the multitudes, When you see a cloud rise in the west you immediately say, There comes a shower; and it is so.” These are really simple observation based forecasts. Real forecasting requires much more. 

The weather and the world is complex. Consider a thin layer of a compressible fluid on a rotating spheroid with a tilted axis in an elliptical orbit about a heat source of varying intensity. Heat and moisture energy in this thin atmosphere requires constant readjustment and stirring just to stay in balance. Weather is the result.

The Thin Atmosphere

Meteorology may not be rocket science – it is much more challenging. Modern forecasting required the invention of physics. The principle was that if we could analyse the current state of the weather, then the laws of physics could be invoked to move the atmosphere and its energy around and thus predict the future state of the atmosphere – the weather. The laws of nature may be inviolate but the world is a complex place and there is much to analyse and more to understand. It can be so intimidating that many now just look at the numerical weather (NWP), computer simulated atmosphere for their forecast. There is a better and more fun way. 

Sample Simplified NWP

I plan to gradually post a series that will take us back to the olden days when people slowed down and looked up at the clouds with both wonder and understanding. The NWP will still have a place for what is happening over the horizon. This will be a creative and artistic look at the science of weather. I will keep them brief. The first Blog in that series is already done. 

Keep you paddle in the water and warmest regards,

Phil the Forecaster

Next time… understanding swirls with your fingers…