Asperitas

Asperitas image courtesy of Jim Montanus May 4th, 2021 5:28 pm with permission.
Visit https://www.facebook.com/MontanusPhotography 

We live at the bottom of the atmospheric ocean. Clouds and water vapour are the visible evidence of the currents and waves within that relatively shallow fluid. Science can deduce the relative motions of the components of the atmospheric ocean from the characteristics of those cloud tracers. That science is meteorology and when combined with thermodynamics, humans have learnt to forecast the weather. The climate is the time integral of that daily weather. This is the basis for understanding all clouds including asperitas. Clouds are the vocabulary of the weather with novel text freshly printed in the sky every day for all to read and appreciate.  

Weather and climate have always been in a state of flux but what we have been witnessing since the start of the Industrial Revolution is the Anthropocene. Greenhouse Earth has already raced past the 1.5 Celsius "line in the sand" with 3.0 Celsius dead ahead. Climate has considerable inertia and the uncontrolled warming will not stop there. The long-range forecast is for thousands of years of a "Super-Interglacial" period as predicted by James Black in 1977 to the Exxon Oil Executives. 

But let's return to the science behind these dramatic and very interesting clouds!

Asperitas clouds over Burnie, Tasmania, Australia. 
 Credit: © Gary McArthur, Cloud Appreciation Society Member 5353

Actually, asperitas clouds are not that rare. My life surrounded by nature has been spent with my head in the clouds. I have observed these patterns many times and painted them at least twice. As a meteorologist, asperitas tell a weather story of a stable layer, wind shear and an unstable atmosphere above within the relatively warm and moist air where those clouds reside. Normally, atmospheric temperatures decrease with height but this tendency is reversed when the atmosphere warms instead as one climbs through a stable inversion. 

Asperitas clouds form in Kanata, 2024 (Cindy Broderick/X)

Asperitas is a cloud formation first popularized and proposed as a type of cloud in 2009 by Gavin Pretor-Pinney of the Cloud Appreciation Society. Asperitas was added to the International Cloud Atlas as a supplementary feature in March 2017. It is the first cloud formation added since cirrus intortus in 1951 - before I was even born! Asperitas means "roughness" in Latin. A Latin teacher friend told Pretor-Pinney to use the Latin verb "aspero" to name this new cloud, Pretor-Pinney said, because the poet Virgil used it to describe the sea "roughened by the northern winters' gales." Our ground-based view can only observe the undulating bottoms of these dramatic clouds as they ride the inversion. Some science is required to interpret those shapes in terms of what is happening within the clouds!

Large expanses of asperitas are more common with warm frontal inversions which only have a slope of 1 (vertical) to 200 (horizontal). Cold fronts are much steeper with a slope of 1:50. 

The Conveyor Belt Conceptual Model of Mid-Latitude Weather Systems
This graphic illustrates how weather systems harness energy from the jet stream and
details where one is more likely to find aspertas clouds.

Asperitas clouds are associated with a strong flow of warm and moist air - the warm conveyor belt (WCB in the above graphic). Higher elevated asperitas are found above the frontal inversion within the labelled area enclosed by a solid yellow line in the above graphic. The cooler and drier air of the cold conveyor belt lies under that inversion. If that cooler air is moving southward, it is a cold front with the slope of the frontal surface dependent on the speed of the front. Fast-moving cold fronts are steep. If the cold air is shifting northward, it is a warm frontal inversion with a more shallow slope. If the cold air is neither advancing or retreating, the associated front must be nearly stationary. The winds in the cold conveyor belt (CCB in the above graphic) are a function of the intensity and the speed of the approaching system.  

The stability of the inversion is enhanced when the surface is cold like one of the Great Lakes in spring (after winter) or over cold ocean currents like the Californian or Subpolar Gyre that abut the west coast of North America. The low levels of the atmospheric ocean are chilled from beneath thus contributing to the temperature contrast across the inversion and its associated stability. 

This cooling from below can even result in low-level inversion conducive to asperitas without the aid of the front as within the yellow dashed area above labelled as "B" for cooling from Below. 

A 2007 Graphic Illustrating Swells and the Warm Frontal Zone
from an unpublished COMET Module

Atmospheric swells might also contribute to the turbulent shaking of the inversion. Large in both amplitude and wavelength, oceanic swells travel long distances from the storms that generate them. The strong winds found at the source of the swells are not experienced far away where the atmospheric swells can really shake up the low-level inversion contributing to the characteristic asperitas clouds. 

Any instability in the air above the inversion can also dramatically accentuate the gravity wave patterns of the asperitas clouds. Updrafts must also produce downdrafts. These vertical motions would dent and shake the inversion like a giant walking on a taunt bedspread.

My Coriolis Hand illustrates a cyclonic 
swirl with the thumb pointing upward in the
atmosphere in the direction of the ascending
air. Meteorologists also refer to this as 
positive vorticity. 

The strong winds essential to create the sensational shapes of the asperitas also generate wind shear. Shear is when the wind direction and/or speed changes relative to neighbouring flows. Shear is responsible for all swirls witnessed within any fluid. The shear can be oriented in any direction but to keep things simple, meteorologists generally refer to horizontal relative winds as they impact vertical motions in the atmosphere. For example, when cyclonic swirls are advected over air that is not twirling as quickly, air rises, the surface pressure decreases and a relative low-pressure forms. The actual science is a bit more complicated but this is the gist of the process required to make weather. 

The vortices that typify asperitas tend to be chaotically distributed in all directions which makes these clouds so very distinctive.

As a result of the rotation of Greenhouse Earth and the Coriolis Force, the right hand is your Coriolis Hand in the northern hemisphere. Mimicking the cloud curls you witness with the fingers of your Coriolis Hand will point your thumb either up or down. If it is cloudy your thumb will likely be pointing up and you are witnessing a cyclonic swirl conducive to ascending air (as pictured above). 

         Planar satellite view of  warm air advection      
and the associated swirls and lines created 
within the moisture patterns.         

A time-lapse video of asperitas should reveal circulations consistent with the type of air that is moving above the frontal inversion within the warm and moist air. For example, dynamic warm fronts occur when warm air is advected toward the north. Such winds veer with height and must create cyclonic (counter-clockwise) swirls in the atmosphere. With the thumb of your Coriolis hand pointing upward at the red "X" in the accompanying graphic, the sense of rotation within those swirls must be in the direction of your fingers. Any lines (deformation zones) linking these swirls must be in the shape of a "backward S". 

In my experience, surface winds associated with asperitas have been calm or even easterly. These winds are consistent with warm frontal asperitas as a moderate to strong low-pressure system approaches. These deductions are explained in "Weather Lessons for Everyone from the Cold Conveyor Belt Wizard". https://philtheforecaster.blogspot.com/2020/08/weather-lessons-for-everyone-from-cold.html

The strong winds required to produce the most dramatic examples of asperitas are often  associated with Langmuir Streaks. Aligned streets of cloud interact in helical circulations contributing to the apparent chaos of the asperitas cloud patterns. Langmuir Streaks were first identified in the Sargasso Sea in 1927 but the same processes can be witnessed within the atmospheric ocean. See "Langmuir Streaks – Take the time to Observe and Learn from Nature".

Oceanic Langmuir Streaks

Asperitas clouds do not produce much if any precipitation and appear at lower levels in the atmospheric ocean (the low etage beneath 6500 feet above ground level). The lack of precipitation is consistent with the preferred location of these clouds under the anticyclonic companion of the warm conveyor belt - the leading portion of the warm conveyor belt which curls anticyclonically within the atmospheric ocean.  

The question has been asked if the increased number of observations of asperitas might be related to the Anthropocene and Climate Change. Applying thermodynamics to the observed climate warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius already achieved means that the atmosphere can currently hold about 12 percent more water vapour than before. That is a lot of water! More clouds must be the result. 

In addition, a warmer air mass is more likely to be significantly chilled by passing over a cold surface thus creating a significant low-level inversion. This later effect of Climate Change will only be realized until the cold ocean currents falter or large interior lakes stop freezing in the winter. 

Of course, more observations of asperitas might also be the result of a dramatic increase in the number of people with cell phones. 

Do not be concerned! None of the above meteorology will appear on any exam. It is enough to just appreciate the natural world of Greenhouse Earth. Asperitas cloud might be more simply summarized without any science as:

Chaotically undulating gravity wave clouds within a weakly stable frontal inversion characterized by strong and turbulent wind shear within the clouds.  (I am still thinking about these words. The clouds might appear violent and chaotic but at some time and space scale, nature has asperitas neatly organized.)

Artists interested in the sky have witnessed and recorded these clouds before. John Constable (1776-1837) was the first of such artists but did not produce an asperitas painting to my knowledge. His art did contribute significantly to the science of cloud observations that followed but that is another very interesting story about how art and science are one. 

Untitled Lawren Harris painting (and weather observation) circa the late 1920s-1930s

Lawren Harris was the first artist that I am aware of who actually recorded asperitas perhaps as early as the 1920s. Not much is known about that particular painting included above. To my knowledge it is not even named although back then, artists tended not to give titles to their works. I have painted two apseritas weather observations so far and I am not done yet. 

#2510 "Singleton Asperitas" 16x20 by 7/8 inches
Mid-afternoon Tuesday, May 4th, 2021 looking westward across Singleton Lake

The meteorology I described above was confirmed in my own weather observation of asperitas. It was a quasi-stationary frontal weather situation with low-pressure centres of moderate intensity far to the southwest. Quasistationary fronts are typically located east of the low-pressure area where warm fronts are found. The cold air on the north side of the front was neither advancing nor retreating so the surface front remained stationary. 

The Great Lakes were still cold after winter. Even Singleton Lake was too chilly for swimming in early May! The light easterly surface winds were part of the cold conveyor belt drawn into the approaching low-pressure system. The satellite top-down view of the weather did not reveal the beauty of the sky witnessed gazing upward from the ground. 

The weather observation of the afternoon of May 4th, 2021. Singleton Lake is
located at the red star on the map in the lower right of the graphic.

Jim Montanus, a Facebook friend took the following dramatic image of the asperitas over chilly Lake Ontario at about the same time that I was painting the clouds over Singleton Lake about 60 kilometres to the northeast. Jim Montanus' post caused a flurry of comments and excitement. I could not resist adding a bit of an explanation and the science behind the unusual clouds. This post is a continuation of that effort given the recent observations of asperitas.

Note that my painting depicted higher-level asperitas riding above the warm frontal surface while Jim Montanus' photograph shows clouds that appear to be closer to the chilly waters of Lake Ontario. These observations are consistent with the conceptual model proposed above.  

Courtesy of Jim Montanus May 4th, 2021 5:28 pm with permission.
Please visit https://www.facebook.com/MontanusPhotography 

Jim Montanus' image also illustrates how the wind shear oriented at a multitude of different angles can create swirls and rotating tubes with all kinds of intriguing orientations - far more than the simplified vertical interpretation of basic meteorology. All of those patterns can be explained but not without digging much deeper than we have already. Sometimes it is best just to appreciate the beauty and complexity of nature. 

Science is curiosity. Science is a process of investigating, learning more and eliminating errors in our understanding of nature. This story of asperitas is a start and might be improved as we discover more. Nature is always right!

Warmest regards and keep your paddle in the water,

Phil Chadwick 

"By the Ghost Light" and "The World Remembers" by R.H. Thomson

Book features are something I rarely post. My school projects are way behind the stern of this canoe. The last book I promoted was by my friend John Vaillant, "Fire Weather: The Making of a Beast"  published in 2023. Vaillant's award-winning book is actually a primer on the science and sociological aspects of climate change disguised as an action tale about the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfires.

My goal was and remains to encourage people to read and better understand the climate catastrophe. If you can only read 25 pages in 2024, please see Chapter 20 of  "Fire Weather". Those pages summarize a couple of centuries of science and explain a crucial five lost decades of action due to corporate greed and political pandering for power and profit. 

Also see "Big carbon's strategic response to global warming, 1950-2020". Big Oil knew the truth in the 1970s but picked wealth and power over Greannhouse Earth and everything therein. Simply evil.

R.H. Thomson's "By The Ghost Light, Wars, Memories, and Families" is another must-read, especially with Remembrance Day in the offing.  It is a slow read for me. One does not want to miss any nuances in the words. Sometimes it takes two or three times for me to savour a sentence and really grasp the message. 

The dedication "To all those who our wars lost, and then forgot" says it all. 

I am of the same vintage as Robert Holmes Thomson who most will remember as Jasper Dale from "Road to Avonlea". But R.H. Thomson is more than a talented actor as displayed throughout the 331 pages of  "By The Ghost Light". Mr. Thomson has even made it his mission to try to make "The World Remember" - an "attempt to name every soldier who lost their life in the First Great War" regardless of which side they fought for. It might be an impossible task in the face of politicized histories and bureaucracies.  

Historian Johnathan F. Vance agreed with Thomson's goal saying: "We must never lose sight of the fact that history is not the history of nations or ideologies but of people."

R.H. Thomson

Thomson's story is also our tale. We are the Baby Boomers whose grandparents and parents fought in those Great Wars. We were the lucky ones whose mothers and fathers survived, returned home, and were able to build a life. "The Lost Boys" who R.H. Thomson also writes about, did not make it home alive. 

Those who fought the Second Great War have been called the Greatest Generation - and rightly so. A generation of youth answered the call while other siblings remained home to keep the farms and industries working. The homestead was maintained by their parents who might have fought in the First Great War, dreading the arrival of telegrams or any message from the government.

      Amos, Ken and "Nels", my Father, 1942     

"Thomson" could be replaced by any one of hundreds of thousands of Canadian surnames. My family, the "Chadwick’s" saw three sons fight overseas and thankfully, all returned to build lives after witnessing the horrors of war. 

Humans are slow learners and history does repeat itself starting with the quote on the opening page of "By The Ghost Light".

"There were a great number of young men who had never been in a war and were consequently far from unwilling to join this one." Thucydides, 5th century BCE.

Private David Starrett is also quoted at the top of page 142:

"So the curtain fell over that tortured country of unmarked graves and unburied fragments of men: murder and massacre: the innocent slaughtered for the guilty: the poor man for the sake of the greed of the already rich: the man of no authority made the victim of the man who had gathered importance and wished to keep it. We were said to be fighting to stop future war, but none of us believed that. Nor ever will." 

The honest eloquence of Private David Starrett regarding the First Great War was true in the 5th Century BCE and is still sadly accurate today. 

My wartime parents gifted my brother and me with a "Leave to Beaver" type childhood. My older brother was Wally. To achieve that life after living through the catastrophe of the Second Great War is remarkable and evidence of a strength of character that is seldom witnessed.

My father did not talk about the Second Great War. He confided that he never turned over bodies on the battlefield except once, only to discover his cousin.

"Nels" in school at 10 years of age in 1934 to a seasoned soldier of just 19 by 1944. Remember.

My father shared one last memory just before he passed in 2001 - something he had never even told our mother. "Nels" and his buddies were lined up along the front when a German machine gun strafed the trenches. His friends on either side of him were killed by mechanized warfare. Lives were forever lost and tragic memories were etched indelibly in the mind. His chin was quivering with the 57-year-old nightmare just like mine when they had to shoot the "Old Yeller". My father would have been 100 years old for this 2024 Remembrance Day. 

R. H. Thomson wisely alludes several times to the current world situation more than a century after the first November 11th Armistice Day. Politicians and leaders have not learnt any of the lessons of the past. War is simply a tool to be used by those in power. 

On page 177 Thomson proposes the following "four articles of faith (for war as a Policy Tool):

1. that the destiny of nations can be determined on the battlefield;
2. that battle is where heroism and manhood are expressed;
3. that the warrior's pride is the tribe's pride; and 
4. that you secure your right to be a nation through victory. 

Warlords and tyrants live by that last one."

All of these "articles of faith" are national in scope and under the control of a very few of the power elite. The stories of the people like my father who comprise history are not even considered, although they pay the full price for the useful "Policy Tool". Shame!

The political and industrial elite continue to accrue unfathomable wealth through authority and graft. They wield their power to remain in their lofty positions apparently above democratic laws - unimpeachable regardless of their crimes. Their simple playbook has not changed over the centuries:

 lie, confuse, conceal, cheat, obfuscate, distract, divide and conquer. 

There is a better way and the hope remains that a real peace which is not just the absence of war can be found. R. H. Thomson mentions the Kellogg-Brand Pact on page 288. It was signed in Paris in August 1928 by almost fifty nations and "renounced war as a policy instrument and sought to solve disputes through peaceful means." Apparently "the agreement was so unrealistic and had no enforcement mechanism, it is no wonder that no one remembers it." Peace need not be unrealistic. 

One simple solution that all can and must exercise is to be well-informed and armed with an inquisitive and analytical mind. Read and don't believe everything you hear or see! Artificial Intelligence (AI) can be incredibly and convincingly deceiving! And always vote wisely.

R.H. Thomson's "By The Ghost Light, Wars, Memories, and Families" put the 20th Century into a context that is tragic but makes sense. Powerful lobby groups with opaque funding continue to undermine facts about the climate catastrophe, established science and the reality of their motives. War is simply another tool in the power elite's bag of tricks. Which explains why history continues to repeat itself.  

The common theme found in both "Fire Weather" and "By The Ghost Light" is that power corrupts and those responsible for their narcissistic deeds lacking empathy, are not held responsible. Captain Gilbert, an Army psychologist assigned to watch the defendants at the 1945-1949 Second World War Nuremberg Trials observed:

"Evil, I think, is the absence of empathy."

These are important messages and both books are very special and deserve to be read.

This November feature of "By the Ghost Light" by R.H. Thomson is being posted on the approximate first anniversary of its publication, and in time for Remembrance Day on November 11th, 2024. Reminiscing should really be a year-long event lest history repeat itself. 

At the risk of appearing cynical, I have witnessed November 11 employed by pious-faced power elite posing for a few sombre minutes pleasuring the photo opportunities while showcasing the "four articles of faith" mentioned by R. H. Thomson.  War remains as a "policy tool" in 2024.

I prefer to remember all year but certainly during November. The stories of the war victims that come to mind include everyone but also nature and the environment. Whales were mistakenly shot and depth-charged during the Second Great War for fear that they were submarines. My moments of remembering always avoid warmongers and politicians.

Farm life near Napanee before reporting for war, 1941. Nels was 16.
Thankfully Nels was not one of R.H. Thomson's "Lost Boys"

Warmest regards and keep your paddle in the water,

Phil Chadwick

Big carbon's strategic response to global warming, 1950-2020

"Big carbon's strategic response to global warming, 1950-2020" is a doctoral dissertation by Benjamin Andrew Franta of  Stanford University, California first published in 2022. The document is available here "https://purl.stanford.edu/hq437ph9153".  It is another important read that must be featured. 

Earlier blog posts like "The Weather Machine A Journey inside the forecast By Andrew Blum",  "A Ground Hog's Lament" and the book feature of  John Vaillant, "Fire Weather: The Making of a Beast" all dealt with climate change. There are many other such posts that discuss atmospheric carbon but these will suffice. 

I gave innumerable presentations as an Atmospheric Environment Service (AES) and then Environment Canada (EC) meteorologist starting in the mid-1980s. Over the years those PowerPoints became more elaborate and full of climate change facts and predicted impacts. Those lectures continued until around 2005 when I was seconded to produce meteorological training materials with COMET in Boulder, Colorado. School and environmental groups were the main audiences and the presentations were outside work hours using my own equipment. Conservative Prime Minister Harper forbade such activities when elected in 2006.

The cuts to environmental programs actually started under a Liberal government in the late 1980s. EC observational networks were compromised and environmental research was not adequately funded due to ongoing financial and staffing cuts (branded as Program Reviews but the goal was to remove scientists). Even the renowned AES Training Branch was shut down in the early 1990s. The story of political and bureaucratic interference with science can fill another book. Deeds speak louder than words.

The government's reactions to the existential threat of climate change baffled me … don’t teach, observe, research or talk about climate change… These were strange and inexplicable actions for a science and service-based department. 

I am retired now so the truth can be exposed, although any significant response to the climate catastrophe is too late. Franta's doctoral dissertation confirms all of the suspicions I harboured regarding the actions of the political and industrial elite. That's why I focussed on science rather than bureaucracy when employed. Science (and art) actually makes sense

"Big carbon's strategic response to global warming, 1950-2020" is a terrific summary for those who wish to be informed. Franta richly deserved his Doctor of Philosophy with this important research. Here is a very concise "Reader's Digest" version but I encourage you to read every word of his dissertation. 

• The Earth is a greenhouse. 
• The science of atmospheric carbon started in the early 1800s. 
• There are many greenhouse gases. 
• Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide was the result of the combustion of fossil fuels. 
• A warming of 2°C would be reached in the 21st century. 
• Climate and weather would change irreversibly making the Earth uninhabitable.

The following atmospheric carbon impact graphic from Franta's doctoral dissertation was presented to Big Oil by their own scientists in July 1977 just as I was starting my meteorological career. 

     James Black (1919-1988)    

James Black was the Scientific Advisor in the Products Research Division of Exxon Research & Engineering, and one of the top technical people at Exxon Research & Engineering until his retirement in 1983.

Big Oil was made aware of these facts and much more in the mid-20th century. They were faced with a simple ethical decision: 

• investigate alternative energy sources and leave the carbon in the ground or 
• escalate carbon extraction continuing business as usual. 

Big Oil clearly chose "business" and employed the same techniques as Big Tobacco, Asbestos and more recently Opioid. The simple playbook has not changed over the centuries:

• Lie, confuse, conceal, cheat, obfuscate, distract, divide and conquer.
• Employ lobby groups with opaque funding and influence politicians and governments while undermining facts about established science and disguising the reality of their motives. 

Dithering inaction results during which the business of accumulating wealth and power can continue unimpeded, "full steam ahead".

This is a very effective "war" campaign to achieve their business interests - more wealth and power. More and then even some more... and more is never enough. 

Further, Big Oil was and is fantastically rich and can easily afford to "invest" in those who will support their goals.  Pseudo-scientists and politicians violating their oath of office aided and abetted the Big Oil objectives. The extraction of carbon escalated almost exponentially starting in the 1970s. Carbon was mined from ever more challenging environments including the deep oceans, Canadian oil sands and fracking for natural gas. Madness!

Is a greater example of the absence of empathy even conceivable? Wealth and power for a narcissistic few at the expense of the planet and every species therein?  Do these entitled few believe that they might actually survive the climate apocalypse of their own creation? Insanity!

Captain Gilbert, an Army psychologist assigned to watch the defendants at the 1945-1949 Second World War Nuremberg Trials observed:

"Evil, I think, is the absence of empathy."

The following images of monthly average temperature deviation from the climate average are eerily similar to the early predictions I first saw as a meteorologist in the 1980's. It takes a few months to process the global observational data so July 2024 is the most recent data I have available at the moment. 

July 2024 was the 14th consecutive month of record-breaking global temperatures worldwide

The willful and deceitful obstructions by Big Oil were even financed by politicians around the world. In fact, Canada continues to heavily subsidize the oil industry. An article from March 26, 2024, indicates that over the last four years (since 2020), the total amount of financial support to the oil and gas sector from the federal government was at least $65 billion - a lot of tax dollars that could have been allocated to green energy and the environment.  Let that astronomical sum sink in and then consider that the current Canadian population is just 40 million. 

One quickly realizes where a significant portion of the "temporary taxes" first imposed 1917 were going. Recall that "The Income War Tax Act" received royal assent on September 20th, 1917 to pay for the efforts of the First Great War. Those taxes accelerated from zero to 50 percent in the next 100 years. Also see the scholarly Fraser Institute document published on April 6th, 2017, detailing Canada’s personal income tax (PIT) system.

Simply, the political and corporate elite have decided that personal taxes must support Big Oil, perhaps to even purchase votes. This funding continues to fire the exploitation of fossil fuels and the release of carbon into the ecosystems. Follow the money and one can quickly identify the political and business elite who play key roles in this travesty. 

Franta's doctoral dissertation is meticulously researched and well-written. It is an essential read if you wish to be informed. Sources of the information are painstakingly included. 

Politicians, lobbyists and climate deniers who might dispute the science and the facts as presented in this doctoral dissertation must have other motivations for their inexplicable reactions. Frankly, the laws of thermodynamics and physics hold sway over any man-made laws they may wish to exploit in their ongoing pursuit of wealth and power.  

The following chart summarizes atmospheric carbon back to 500,000 years ago. The science required to obtain these values would fill several books. The take-home message is that the atmospheric carbon concentration is at an obvious all-time high and accelerating out of control as fossil fuels continue to be exploited. This is very bad news for Greenhouse Earth.   

The current global average concentration
of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the
atmosphere is 421 ppm (0.04%)
as of May 2022. 

The Industrial Revolution has released eons of carbon back into the earth's ecosystem within an ecological heartbeat. Fossil fuels formed from ancient plants and organisms during the Carboniferous Period approximately 286 – 360 million years ago. That carbon is rapidly being returned to the atmosphere in the Industrial Age of humans. The rate of atmospheric carbon accumulation continues to accelerate. Even if fossil fuel exploitation ended today, the inertial momentum of the climate system will continue to change the globe making it uninhabitable for countless species including man. It is already too late for any meaningful response to this crisis. The 2015 Paris Agreement's "one-point-five Celsius" limit has likely already been surpassed but the data is still being processed.

Political and bureaucratic dithering under the "Net Zero by 2050" slogan permits a few more decades of wealth and power accumulation by Big Oil while the world burns in the 21st century of fire. Sadly, it is business as usual. 

The Big Oil war campaign for wealth and power continues as the world bakes with record-high temperatures. Consider the recent promotion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a cleaner-burning gas that Big Oil touts as an important “bridge” fuel and even a “climate solution”. Really? 

The Canadian Federal government even bought into this new Big Oil deception by purchasing the Trans Mountain pipeline and expansion for $4.5 billion (full market value) in 2018. The Feds came to the rescue of Big Oil when Kinder Morgan threatened to abandon the project in light of justifiable and ongoing opposition in British Columbia. As of February 2023, the total costs for LNG Canada's Phase 1 were estimated to be at least $ 48.3 billion. That is an unfathomable amount of money for something worse than coal! Some of that cash is bound to originate from taxes and subsidies but the percentages are unknown. 

"Exported gas produces far worse emissions than coal, major study finds ; The greenhouse gas footprint of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exported from the United States by Robert W. Howarth"

This peer-reviewed research, (yet another must-read) was published in October 2024  in the Energy Science & Engineering journal. The science challenges the rationale for a huge surge in LNG facilities along the US Gulf Coast dedicated to shipping gas in huge tankers to overseas markets (for big profits). The research has determined that LNG is 33% worse in terms of planet-heating emissions over 20 years compared with coal. Drilling, moving, cooling and shipping gas from one country to another uses so much energy that the actual final burning of gas accounts for only about a third of the total emissions from this process. Those activities also leave behind a devastated environment.

“The idea that coal is worse for the climate is mistaken – LNG has a larger greenhouse gas footprint than any other fuel,” said Robert Howarth, an environmental scientist at Cornell University and author of the new paper.

“To think we should be shipping around this gas as a climate solution is just plain wrong. It’s greenwashing from oil and gas companies that has severely underestimated the emissions from this type of energy.”

There is “no need for LNG as an interim energy source”, the paper says, adding that “ending the use of LNG should be a global priority”.

My own experiences within AES and EC and these LNG observations are all consistent with Big Oil pulling the strings of their politician puppets for profit and power. Let's not "beat around the Bushes", how many Presidents, Political Leaders and Prime Ministers around the world have had strong perhaps concealed ties to Big Oil?  Improper collusions for power and profit would constitute crimes against not just humanity, but Greenhouse Earth. Investigative reporters could turn that information into another best-selling book and another must-read.

A meteorologist friend reminded me that 

"we are wrong to expect any corporation to act for the good of the public.  It is always an unreasonable expectation. It is our governments that we should expect to act for the good of the public and it is to them that the harshest criticism should be levied."

Quite true and something to ponder. The goal of these blogs has always been to encourage people to read and be informed... and of course, vote wisely. 

To summarize, the world is going to exceed the 1.5°C target for global warming soon if it has not already. It takes time to process the voluminous amount of data that is currently available. Inertia in the climate system will carry the planet into uncharted weather and feedback mechanisms that can't be reversed. Global empathy is needed now more than ever! Leaders, scientists and people of the world need to work together using every innovative resource conceivable to solve the climate catastrophe. 

The September 2024 temperature at 2 metres deviation from climatic normals.
There is nothing normal about this!

As briefed to Big Oil by their own scientists in July 1977, Greenhouse Earth is entering "thousands of years" of a "super-interglacial" period as a result of "uncontrolled fossil fuel use". James Black's forecast was perfect. The red dashed line is mine for the intensity and duration of the predicted "super-interglacial" period. No one will remain alive to know for certain. Was James Black's abrupt downturn in temperature simply based on the extermination of humans? We will never know.

That Big Oil would deliberately take the path leading to the annihilation of the paradise of Greenhouse Earth and all therein is evil. That government would help fund these existentialist efforts is criminal. That these actions were taken in the pursuit of wealth and power is inconceivable. Shame is not enough. Vote wisely. 

Imagine instead if just some of those taxes used to prop up Big Oil were applied instead to energy research and creative and imaginative science during the dithering fostered by Big Oil and government inaction.  An entire Green Industry might have been created and implemented in those lost six decades of climate opportunity. Greenhouse Earth would be looking at a very different and positive future in 2024. 

Continued extraction and mining for rare earth minerals for batteries and EVs is as unsustainable as mining for carbon.  In sharp contrast, hydrogen fuel cells charged using solar energy might be the practical answer and could be the topic for another blog. 

The cost of solar energy continued to drop during the six decades of dithering. The future could have been bright and maybe still can be with government support. I prefer to end a post on a positive note!

Warmest regards and keep your paddle in the water,

Phil Chadwick 

PS: This effort has been weeks in the making ... I even hesitated to post about Big Oil and the government as I prefer to share only happy news. The doctoral dissertation by Benjamin Andrew Franta of Stanford University, California was published in 2022 but I only saw it this summer.

PSS: The sun is the source of all energy on Greenhouse Earth. We need to use it more directly and not through intermediaries like fossil fuels. A great start would be to install solar panels on every roof with exposure to the sun. There is also tidal energy available by harvesting energy from the gravitational pull of the moon. 

Fitbit Recovery Project... FRP

My Daughter wrote the following and I just put it together with pictures. It is one of those compositions that school children are asked to write upon arriving back for the first day of  school in the fall - "What did you do on your summer vacation?"

You cannot make this stuff up... The truth can really be stranger than fiction.  The following tale is true just as it happened...

When I arrived at my parent's house with my two kids, we headed straight to the lake to beat the heat. My Dad suggested I remove my watch, but I’d worn it countless times in the water without any issues. So, I dove in and played with the kids on the paddle boards. Within minutes, my Mom noticed something was wrong—my watch was missing. I was devastated. I’d had the watch for a year and a half. The Fitbit was incredibly useful at the school where I teach, allowing me to screen texts and calls and to prioritize what’s important. The Fitbit had become an extension of everything I did...

The loss of the watch became the start of the Fitbit Recovery Program (FRP). It turned into an ongoing joke—my personal trainer was drowning 20 feet underwater. My Dad called the watch "Dick Tracy" talking into his bare wrist and saying, “Come in, Dick!” to which he’d respond, “Glub, glub, blub!”. My Dad is retired but has not worn any watch since 1985. He claims to have known Dick Tracy personally...

Dick Tracy's Watch was way ahead of its time

The two-way radio watch became synonymous with hard-boiled detective  Dick Tracy, the comic-strip super detective created by Chester Gould and active solving crimes from 1931 to 1977. Technology has changed a lot since Chester dreamt up his watch. Like smartphones, "smart watches" use touchscreens, offer apps, and often record your heart rate and other vital signs. In 2024, 224.31 million (that is a lot of people) worldwide use Smart Watches. More than 24% of suburbanites brandish them on their wrists. Chester was indeed way ahead of his time and his comic book fiction evolved into a popular fact. 

My Fitbit has a GPS, 3-axis accelerometer,  optical heart rate monitor, vibration motor, red and infrared sensors for blood oxygen (SpO2) monitoring and an ambient light sensor. My Fitbit tracked my steps, distance travelled, calories burned, heart rate, monitored my sleep, connected to my phone, and received calls, texts and emails. It had become an important part of my busy life and could even tell the time. Despite all of these capabilities, "Dick" could not swim! We had to save "Dick Tracy" but how in twenty feet of water?

We began researching how long a "Fitbit Sense 2" could survive underwater.  Fitbit advertises it can easily survive up to 50 meters (164 feet) of depth. So depth was not a problem! The waterproof seals on wearables typically have around a two-year lifespan. Time was also on our side although "Dick" was a year and a half old and thus pushing the age limit. 

Some sites suggested that a submerged Smart Watch could last "quite a while", so we started planning the Fitbit Recovery Project, FRP.  Other sources advised that any recovery was quite impossible so just give up before you start... We couldn't find any success stories online, but that didn’t stop us. It would be an adventure in any case.

We started with heavy-duty magnets attached to ropes and buoys. The thinking was that there was enough metal in the Fitbit to be attracted to a magnet - especially an industrial welding magnet or one designed specifically for retrieving metal objects. It seemed like a good idea and success could surely not take very long. 

We "magnet-fished" from the paddle boards and "Super Mable", gently drifting around in the swimming hole for a few days. We hoped to feel the clunk of "Dick" being drawn magnetically in for the rescue. Unfortunately, nothing except a few historic bottle caps were recovered.

Maybe there was not enough metal in the Fitbit? We could guess where the Fitbit must be on the bottom so perhaps a net would scoop it up. We attached fishing nets to long painting poles. To reach the required depth, two poles had to be joined together using the Handy Man secret adhesive - duct tape. 

A rope was attached to the lip of the net. The netting technique required two people: one steering the pole-net assembly and the other pulling the rope attached to the lip of the net through the twenty feet of water.  The rope ensured that the net could scoop at the bottom of the lake and then be pulled up for an examination of the content without spilling the valuable cargo. We caught mud, weeds and zebra mussel shells but no "Dick". 

Just like in the movie "Jaws", we needed a bigger net! Success would certainly follow. We constructed a much larger drag net using a badminton net, chains, and flotation. The concept was based on a fishing seine. The chains tied to the bottom of the net would scour the muddy bottom. Long wooden straps would keep the net fully extended while providing floatation for the top of the seine. 

Operationally, someone paddled the seine badminton net out to the far side of the pool with the apparatus carefully arranged. Deployment required the assembly to drop in sequence so the chain side landed on the bottom. Two people spread apart on the dock would then pull the seine across the bottom capturing "Dick" in the process. Success was almost guaranteed.

We tried four sweeps across the pool toward the dock catching only weeds. Perhaps we needed to pull the net in the other direction in order to ensure success. "Dick" might have moved through our previous efforts. 

We migrated the seine operation to the other rocky peninsula. The net was pulled across the swimming area from the floating dock. Surely "Dick" was almost within our grasp! All we saw was a large bass. 

Magnets and two styles of nets had proved to be ineffective. Perhaps we had moved "Dick" back and forth across the swimming area. We really had no idea where to look next. It was time for technology. 

Things took a positive turn when my uncle arrived with his fishing camera. It had not been used for a while but might just be the answer! After charging the battery, it did not take long for technology and science to prove its worth. With the camera, we could actually see the watch sitting placidly on the bottom of the deep pool, clear as day. The fish camera had an LED light that showed "Dick" to be face down with the vinyl straps curved upward. We could see "Dick" but how could we rescue him? 

The following approach used the paddleboard as the platform to bring the camera, magnet and Fitbit all together in time and space. The wind made the paddleboard a challenge to maneuver. Even a paddle to the in an attempt to steady the rescue attempt was not sufficient. 

I went into the water wearing a life jacket, one hand holding the camera and the other a high-powered magnet. Though we could see the watch, we just couldn’t grab it.

We even tried a night-time rescue thinking that the fluorescent display of "Dick" would make it easier to see and thus snag the watch. It turned out that all the fish camera could see were whiskered bullheads attracted to the LED lighting and coming in for fishy "selfies". Hmmm... the evening mosquitoes were also very hungry and quickly encouraged the FRP Team to abandon that approach. 

We also tried marking the exact spot with buoys. My dad even attempted diving with a weighted rock to reach the bottom. At one point, we rigged an old vacuum hose and mask, hoping that it would allow more time to search the depths. But the water pressure was too much. These attempts at only twenty feet of water brought back memories of "Sea Hunt", Lloyd Bridges and Jacques Cousteau. It looked so easy on TV but was much harder in real life.

Sea Hunt is an American action-adventure television series that aired in syndication from 1958 to 1961 and was popular for decades afterwards. The series originally aired for four seasons, with 155 episodes produced. It stars Lloyd Bridges as former Navy diver Mike Nelson.

By Day 8 of the FRP, the FRP rescue team was getting frustrated. We now knew exactly where the watch was. We could see it on the fish camera! But the sultry summer weather had changed. Conditions were now dominated by an aptly named "cold low". The associated wind, rain, and chilly temperatures made it difficult to stay in the water and hold the camera steady too. 

My dad had an idea to move the pontoon boat to the end of the dock, using it to secure the camera on a painting roller rod to minimize movement. The camera had to be suspended a few inches off the bottom for a clear image. We tied the boat securely to the floating dock. The dock itself had to be further tethered to the steel anchors on the shore. Nothing was allowed to move as even getting onto the floating dock or the boat caused vertical motions and the loss of contact with the drowning "Dick". 

On the morning of Day 9, we decided to try one last approach: a fishing rod with a weight and a large three-pronged treble hook. It was a last-ditch effort to save "Dick" as the summer holiday was ending the next day. My daughter and I had the watch on camera control and the TV screen while my dad dropped the hook in the pool and bounced it off the bottom. 

It was tricky to locate and align the hook with the watch. Weather conditions were not ideal with the chilly rain and wind. After some experimentation to account for differences in the TV image and the reality of the real estate at the bottom of the lake, we suddenly saw the hook and the watch simultaneously on the TV screen. Olivia, my daughter, suggested, “Wait... just bounce the hook slowly toward the camera.” My dad did just that from twenty-five feet above. Each time the hook and sinker dropped to the bottom, a cloud of silt erupted obscuring the camera's view. Another three bounces and the sinker dropped right on "Dick". Oh no! The watch immediately disappeared again in an eruption of silt and mud!

We thought we had lost "Dick" for good this time, but when my Dad pulled the line, there it was—hooked and intact! We all yelled in excitement, and I may have let a few choice words slip. As my Dad carefully and slowly reeled in the line, I bent down, ready to grab the Fitbit. The watch was securely attached to the hook. This one was not getting away. We rushed up to the house to show Nana and Charlotte, the essential background support part of the FRP Team. 

We were in shock. The watch was black and covered in dirt. But when I reached for it, it buzzed and lit up, displaying a low battery alarm! I removed the band and immediately submerged it in rice bath to dry "Dick" out - essentially an ICU for wet electronics. The rice was then fed to the birds.

Later that day, I charged it, and to my amazement, it synced perfectly with all my data from my phone. After 9 days and 20 feet underwater, the watch worked great. "Dick" was very much alive. The battery doesn’t last quite as long and his voice still sounds a bit nasally, but overall, "Dick Tracy" is as good as new!

We tested to see if one of the strong magnets could attract "Dick". The response was too weak to be effective so that method of recovery was essentially a waste of effort. The only chance for recovery except for prevailing on the diving abilities of Lloyd Bridges or Jacques Cousteau was simply a hook, line and sinker.

The FitBit Recovery Project (FRP) had turned out to be a success. Never give up... It took a five-person team to pull this off - not to mention the equipment and technology supplied by Uncle Jim.  

In the future, just take your watches off before you dive into deep water... 

Warmest regards and keep your paddle in the water,

Janice 

The Artists of Georgian Bay

I was happy to be invited to participate in "The Artists of Georgian Bay".  As a solitary, almost hermit artist, I prefer to trace my own artistic journey. My goal is simply to learn and get better - both in art and life. It takes considerable time and effort to produce 2900 paintings - a number I expect to reach later this year. The intent is for the art to speak for itself freeing up time for me to simply create. I believe it is impossible to go anywhere new by following someone else. I want my artistic statements to be unique even though I certainly admire the art of many contemporary and past artists.  

As a result, I was quite surprised to be approached by Andrea Hillo, Publisher and Graphic Artist. I was even more surprised to discover that my friend Roy had already endorsed Andrea and her art projects. 

“Your books on area artists are important

contributions to Canadian culture.

I salute you.”
Roy MacGregor - the globe and mail, Author

Andrea can be contacted at PO Box 88 Harcourt, ON, K0L 1X0 or by email at: hillodesign@gmail.com

Here is a preview of the book and my contribution to the effort. I will have 25 copies available and will gladly sign or possibly remarque these. 

Art is a way of life. I surround myself with nature, enjoying the quiet beauty which can be found just outside my Studio door. Although I still love to get out and paint around Georgian Bay!

Here are some prized comments contributed during my artistic journey so far ... 

“You are our plein air inspiration, descendant in spirit from Tom Thomson himself!” Aleta Karstad

 “Wonderful, fresh and dynamic” Robert and Birgit Bateman

"Phil Chadwick's Canoe Lake series is wonderful. He not only captures the water and fall colours perfectly, but the 'personality' of the shoreline and cottages that make this lake so very special." Roy MacGregor

“I never tire of looking at Phil’s paintings. He is a prolific Plein air painter who has masterfully perfected the art of bringing the distinctive wild, beautiful Canadian landscape to life. His work makes me homesick. And he is the best Plein air Companion!” Leslie Allen - Allen Fine Art Studio

The Artists of Georgian Bay

Warmest regards and keep your paddle in the water,

Phil Chadwick